Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samambaia vs Ceilandia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Rorizao, Samambaia
Samambaia Logo

Samambaia

2 - 1
FT
Ceilandia Logo

Ceilandia

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Diego Xavier
54' Event
Victor Xavier
57' Event
Matheus
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Samambaia and Ceilandia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Samambaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Samambaia
35%
Draws
24%
Ceilandia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Ceilandia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Samambaia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Brasiliense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samambaia Ceilandia
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 11 14
Draws 6 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.33 1.33
Goals Conceded 1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
2:1
Mar 8, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Samambaia
1:1
Feb 24, 2024 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
0:3
Feb 26, 2023 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
3:0
Apr 10, 2021 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Samambaia
8:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Diego Xavier
1 Goals
Assists Leader Victor Xavier
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samambaia 95 / 100
Ceilandia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samambaia Ceilandia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Samambaia scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Ceilandia let in goals in 69% of their last 36 matches.

Samambaia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samambaia VS Ceilandia
2.25 Goals Scored 1
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Samambaia

(Home)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 6

Ceilandia

(Away)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)