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Samaritaine vs Morne des Esses

Martinique Martinique

Trophee Gerard Janvion 2025/2026
Samaritaine Logo

Samaritaine

4 - 0
FT
Morne des Esses Logo

Morne des Esses

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Samaritaine in this Trophee Gerard Janvion 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Samaritaine.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Samaritaine
20%
Draws
60%
Morne des Esses
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Morne des Esses

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Samaritaine have won more games recently than Morne des Esses.
  • 60% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Samaritaine Clean Sheet 16%
Morne des Esses Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samaritaine Morne des Esses
Matches Played 38 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 13 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.97 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Trophee Gerard Janvion
Samaritaine vs Morne des Esses
4:0
Oct 18, 2025 Trophee Gerard Janvion
Morne des Esses vs Samaritaine
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samaritaine 31 / 100
Morne des Esses 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samaritaine Morne des Esses

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morne des Esses Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Samaritaine scored in 79% of their last 38 outings.

Morne des Esses has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Morne des Esses's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Samaritaine VS Morne des Esses
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Samaritaine

(Home)
12 Sept
Samaritaine
2 : 2
Club Colonial
05 Sept
Golden Lion
2 : 2
Samaritaine
06 Jun
Samaritaine
1 : 4
Aiglon Lamentin
30 May
Trenelle
2 : 0
Samaritaine
16 May
Samaritaine
0 : 1
Inter de Sainte-Anne
Page 1 of 8

Morne des Esses

(Away)
12 Sept
RC Lorrain
2 : 3
Morne des Esses
05 Sept
Morne des Esses
1 : 3
RC Saint Joseph
06 Jun
Franciscain
2 : 1
Morne des Esses
30 May
Morne des Esses
4 : 1
Golden Star
16 May
Club Colonial
3 : 1
Morne des Esses
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RC Saint Joseph 26 21 5 0 64:10 94
2 Franciscain 26 20 3 3 54:16 89
3 Golden Lion 26 15 4 7 51:27 75
4 Club Colonial 26 15 2 9 44:30 73
5 Samaritaine 26 11 7 8 49:27 66
6 Club Peleen 26 11 4 11 40:43 63
7 Inter de Sainte-Anne 26 9 7 10 33:31 60
8 Trenelle 26 7 10 9 37:41 57
9 Golden Star 26 9 4 13 32:44 57
10 Morne des Esses 26 8 6 12 28:40 56
11 Espoir 26 8 4 14 30:49 54
12 Aiglon Lamentin 26 6 3 17 33:74 47
13 Robert 26 5 5 16 22:47 46
14 Emulation 26 2 6 18 18:56 38
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