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Sambiase vs Athletic Palermo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Grillo P.
(Penalty)
52' Event
Leveque A.
90' Event
Maurino F.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Sambiase and Athletic Palermo finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Athletic Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sambiase
20%
Draws
44%
Athletic Palermo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Athletic Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Athletic Palermo come out ahead of Sambiase on wins alone.
  • Model gives Sambiase a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Sambiase Clean Sheet 68%
Athletic Palermo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sambiase Athletic Palermo
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 16
Draws 9 3
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.73
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Sambiase vs Athletic Palermo
1:2
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Athletic Palermo vs Sambiase
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sambiase Compare

Top Goalscorer Leveque A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Athletic Palermo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sambiase 77 / 100
Athletic Palermo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sambiase Athletic Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sambiase Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Athletic Palermo conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Sambiase scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Sambiase has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sambiase VS Athletic Palermo
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sambiase

(Home)
08 Aug
Salernitana
2 : 1
Sambiase
03 May
Reggina
4 : 2
Sambiase
26 Apr
Sambiase
1 : 1
Nissa
19 Apr
Milazzo
0 : 1
Sambiase
12 Apr
Enna
1 : 1
Sambiase
Page 1 of 7

Athletic Palermo

(Away)
10 May
Reggina
1 : 0
Athletic Palermo
03 May
USD Ragusa
1 : 2
Athletic Palermo
26 Apr
Athletic Palermo
1 : 3
A.C. Savoia
19 Apr
Vibonese
2 : 3
Athletic Palermo
12 Apr
Athletic Palermo
0 : 3
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)