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Sambiase vs Gela - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Haberkon V.
74' Event
Vogiatzis V.
(Penalty)
87' Event
Grisley S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I game between Sambiase and Gela finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sambiase.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Sambiase
30%
Draws
23%
Gela
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sambiase

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Sambiase carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Sambiase taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Sambiase have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Sambiase Clean Sheet 68%
Gela Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sambiase Gela
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.16 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Sambiase vs Gela
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Sambiase vs Gela
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs Sambiase
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sambiase Compare

Top Goalscorer Haberkon V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grisley S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gela Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sambiase 50 / 100
Gela 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sambiase Gela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sambiase Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gela's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Sambiase scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Sambiase has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sambiase VS Gela
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sambiase

(Home)
04 Oct
Licata
2 : 1
Sambiase
27 Sept
Sambiase
4 : 1
Lamezia
20 Sept
Milazzo
0 : 1
Sambiase
16 Sept
Sambiase
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
12 Sept
Digiesse PraiaTortora
1 : 1
Sambiase
Page 1 of 7

Gela

(Away)
04 Oct
Gela
0 : 0
Athletic Palermo
27 Sept
Digiesse PraiaTortora
1 : 0
Gela
20 Sept
Gela
0 : 0
Enna
16 Sept
Siracusa
2 : 1
Gela
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 6 5 0 1 15:1 15
2 Vibonese 6 4 1 1 15:5 13
3 Sambiase 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Calcio Avola 6 4 0 2 9:10 12
5 Igea Virtus 6 3 2 1 14:11 11
6 Licata 6 3 2 1 8:8 11
7 Digiesse PraiaTortora 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
8 Milazzo 6 3 0 3 5:8 9
9 Athletic Palermo 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
10 Nissa 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 ASD Modica Calcio 6 2 1 3 6:5 7
12 Lamezia 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
13 Siracusa 6 3 2 1 8:5 4
14 Castrumfavara 6 1 1 4 5:7 4
15 Gela 6 1 2 3 4:6 4
16 USD Ragusa 6 0 2 4 4:9 2
17 Trapani 6 2 0 4 3:10 1
18 Enna 6 0 1 5 0:15 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)