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Stadium Background

Sambiase vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Ortolini R.
27' Event
Colombatti G.
70' Event
Ferreira M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Sambiase and Gelbison finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sambiase.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sambiase
20%
Draws
29%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sambiase

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Gelbison carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Sambiase taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sambiase Clean Sheet 68%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sambiase Gelbison
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.14 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.86 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Sambiase vs Gelbison
2:1
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Sambiase
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sambiase Compare

Top Goalscorer Ortolini R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Colombatti G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sambiase 86 / 100
Gelbison 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sambiase Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sambiase Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sambiase's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Gelbison conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Sambiase has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sambiase VS Gelbison
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sambiase

(Home)
16 Sept
Sambiase
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
12 Sept
Digiesse PraiaTortora
1 : 1
Sambiase
06 Sept
Sambiase
2 : 1
Gela
08 Aug
Salernitana
2 : 1
Sambiase
03 May
Reggina
4 : 2
Sambiase
Page 1 of 6

Gelbison

(Away)
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)