Sport Picks

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Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli

Georgia Georgia

Georgian Cup
Sat, Aug 1, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Georgian Cup. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Meshakhte Tkibuli have shipped 2.75 goals a game lately, while Samgurali have conceded 1.75 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Samgurali have won 4 to Meshakhte Tkibuli's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on May 6, 2026, ending 3:1. The numbers (2.13 xG vs 1.38) point toward Samgurali. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Samgurali
22%
Draws
18%
Meshakhte Tkibuli
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Samgurali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Samgurali carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Samgurali's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Samgurali have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Samgurali, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Samgurali have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Samgurali Clean Sheet 17%
Meshakhte Tkibuli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samgurali Meshakhte Tkibuli
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.75 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli
3:1
Mar 8, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali
0:0
Nov 11, 2019 Liga 3
Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali
1:2
Sep 15, 2019 Liga 3
Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli
5:1
Jun 12, 2019 Liga 3
Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samgurali 57 / 100
Meshakhte Tkibuli 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samgurali Meshakhte Tkibuli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samgurali's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Meshakhte Tkibuli has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Samgurali has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samgurali VS Meshakhte Tkibuli
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Samgurali

(Home)
26 Jul
WIT Georgia
2 : 3
Samgurali
20 Jul
Spaeri
0 : 1
Samgurali
24 Jun
Gagra
0 : 0
Samgurali
18 Jun
Dinamo Tbilisi
5 : 3
Samgurali
13 Jun
Samgurali
2 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
Page 1 of 7

Meshakhte Tkibuli

(Away)
25 Jul
Gonio
1 : 2
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Jul
Meshakhte Tkibuli
2 : 4
Urartu
23 Jun
Iberia 1999
2 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
18 Jun
Meshakhte Tkibuli
1 : 1
Gagra
13 Jun
FC Rustavi
1 : 0
Meshakhte Tkibuli
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Guria6
Merani Tbilisi1
TBD-
Dinamo Tbilisi-
Kolkheti 1913-
TBD-
Zooveti Tbilisi0
Dusheti2
Samtredia-
TBD-
West Georgia0
Shturmi2
Torpedo Kutaisi 20
Margveti 20064
TBD-
Iberia 1999-
Dmanisi0
WIT Georgia3
TBD-
Samgurali-
Dinamo Sokhumi0
Gonio3
TBD-
Meshakhte Tkibuli-
Mertskhali1
Gori3
TBD-
Bolnisi-
FC Gardabani1
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi5
TBD-
Dila Gori-
FC Rustavi 22
Orbi3
TBD-
Dinamo Batumi-
Merani Martvili 21
Iberia 1999 22
TBD-
Telavi-
Iveria Khashuri5
Betlemi Keda4
TBD-
Torpedo Kutaisi-
Merani Martvili-
TBD-
Gagra 21
Odishi 19192
Aragvelebi0
FC Tbilisi 20254
TBD-
FC Rustavi-
Skuri Tsalenjikha3
Dinamo Tbilisi 24
TBD-
Spaeri-
Basa2
Locomotive Tbilisi1
TBD-
FC Gareji Sagarejo-
Samtskhe4
Didube1
TBD-
Gagra-
1/16-finals
Guria1
Dinamo Tbilisi0
Kolkheti 19130
Dusheti1
Samtredia2
Shturmi1
Margveti 20061
Iberia 19993
WIT Georgia2
Samgurali3
Gonio1
Meshakhte Tkibuli2
Gori1
Bolnisi0
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi0
Dila Gori1
Orbi1
Dinamo Batumi4
Iberia 1999 20
Telavi1
Iveria Khashuri1
Torpedo Kutaisi3
Merani Martvili1
Odishi 19192
FC Tbilisi 20250
FC Rustavi1
Dinamo Tbilisi 21
Spaeri5
Basa0
FC Gareji Sagarejo2
Samtskhe1
Gagra2
1/8-finals
Guria-
Dusheti-
Samtredia-
Iberia 1999-
Samgurali-
Meshakhte Tkibuli-
Gori-
Dila Gori-
Dinamo Batumi-
Telavi-
Torpedo Kutaisi-
Odishi 1919-
FC Rustavi-
Spaeri-
FC Gareji Sagarejo-
Gagra-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-