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Samoa U16 vs New Caledonia U16

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U16
Sat, Jul 18, 2026
VS
09:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Samoa U16 host New Caledonia U16 in the OFC Championship U16. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Samoa U16 at 0.63 goals for, 2.5 against; New Caledonia U16 at 2.63 for, 1.63 against. Head-to-head, Samoa U16 have won 1 to New Caledonia U16's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 24, 2025, ending 0:5. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 2.56, favoring Samoa U16. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Samoa U16
6%
Draws
90%
New Caledonia U16
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: New Caledonia U16

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • New Caledonia U16's 2.63 goals per match outpaces what Samoa U16 have produced (0.63).
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on New Caledonia U16 taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this OFC Championship U16 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Samoa U16 Clean Sheet 10%
New Caledonia U16 Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa U16 New Caledonia U16
Matches Played 14 18
Wins 6 6
Draws 1 2
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 0.63 2.63
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2025 OFC Championship U16
Samoa U16 vs New Caledonia U16
0:5
Jul 30, 2024 OFC Championship U16
New Caledonia U16 vs Samoa U16
0:2
Sep 13, 2018 OFC Championship U16
Samoa U16 vs New Caledonia U16
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa U16 10 / 100
New Caledonia U16 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa U16 New Caledonia U16

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: New Caledonia U16 conceded in 83% of 18 recent games.

Samoa U16 scored in 79% of their last 14 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Samoa U16 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samoa U16 VS New Caledonia U16
0.63 Goals Scored 2.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Papua New Guinea U1611004:03
2Fiji U1611002:03
3New Caledonia U1610010:20
4Samoa U1610010:40
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Solomon Islands U1600000:00
2Vanuatu U1600000:00
3New Zealand U1600000:00
4Tahiti U1600000:00