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Samoa U19 vs Tonga U19

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U19 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Malo S.
66' Event
Falepapalangi T.

AI Match Summary

The OFC Championship U19 2018 game between Samoa U19 and Tonga U19 finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Samoa U19
15%
Draws
49%
Tonga U19
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonga U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Samoa U19 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Samoa U19's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Samoa U19 Clean Sheet 11%
Tonga U19 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa U19 Tonga U19
Matches Played 14 14
Wins 5 3
Draws 1 2
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.43 0.86
Goals Conceded 2.29 3.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2018 OFC Championship U19
Samoa U19 vs Tonga U19
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samoa U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Malo S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Tonga U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Falepapalangi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa U19 47 / 100
Tonga U19 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa U19 Tonga U19

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samoa U19 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tonga U19 conceded in 86% of 14 recent games.

Samoa U19's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 14 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Tonga U19 has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Samoa U19 VS Tonga U19
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
3 Goals Conceded 3.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Samoa U19

(Home)
12 Sept
Samoa U19
3 : 1
Vanuatu U19
07 Sept
Samoa U19
0 : 2
Solomon Islands U19
04 Sept
Papua New Guinea U19
4 : 2
Samoa U19
01 Sept
New Caledonia U19
4 : 2
Samoa U19
16 Jul
Tahiti U19
4 : 0
Samoa U19
Page 1 of 3

Tonga U19

(Away)
10 Jun
Tonga U19
1 : 4
Cook Islands U19
07 Jun
Tonga U19
0 : 4
Papua New Guinea U19
15 Apr
American Samoa U19
3 : 4
Tonga U19
12 Apr
Tonga U19
0 : 3
Vanuatu U19
09 Apr
Tonga U19
1 : 1
Cook Islands U19
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tonga U19 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
2 Samoa U19 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
3 Cook Islands U19 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 American Samoa U19 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - OFC Championship U19 2018 (Main)