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Samoa vs Tahiti

World World

World Championship 2026 Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Hamilton-Pama F. In: Malauulu A.
Out: Hamilton-Pama F.
59' Event
Kaspard E.
Assist: Shan M.
62'
Sub
Wilson T. B. In: Vaai J.
Out: Wilson T. B.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Samoa and Tahiti finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tahiti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Samoa
22%
Draws
60%
Tahiti
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tahiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Samoa haven't matched Tahiti's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Tahiti a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tahiti have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Samoa Clean Sheet 15%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa Tahiti
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 1 4
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 2 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 World Championship
Samoa vs Tahiti
0:3
Jun 16, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Tahiti vs Samoa
2:0
Nov 27, 2023 Pacific Games
Tahiti vs Samoa
2:1
May 29, 2016 World Championship
Tahiti vs Samoa
4:0
Jun 1, 2012 World Championship
Samoa vs Tahiti
1:10

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tahiti Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaspard E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mathon B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa 19 / 100
Tahiti 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa Tahiti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAH Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Tahiti has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Samoa found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Samoa has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samoa VS Tahiti
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Samoa

(Home)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
Page 1 of 6

Tahiti

(Away)
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
30 Jun
Tahiti
2 : 1
Fiji
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1New Caledonia32107:47
2Fiji31205:45
3Solomon Islands31024:53
4Papua New Guinea30125:81
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1New Zealand330019:19
2Tahiti32015:36
3Vanuatu31025:113
4Samoa30031:150
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)