Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Pacific Games Women game between Samoa W and Tonga W finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Samoa W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Samoa W carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Samoa W a 43% chance of winning this.
- Regular Pacific Games Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Samoa W here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Samoa W Clean Sheet 20%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Samoa W | Tonga W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.94 | 3.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 13, 2024 Olympic Games Women
Tonga W vs Samoa W
0:2
Nov 24, 2023 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs Tonga W
4:1
Jul 13, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Samoa W vs Tonga W
2:0
Jul 8, 2019 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs Tonga W
5:0
Jul 6, 2015 Pacific Games Women
Tonga W vs Samoa W
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Samoa W 67 / 100
Tonga W 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Samoa W Tonga W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Samoa W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tonga W has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Attacking prowess: Samoa W scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Difficult form: Tonga W registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Samoa W VS Tonga W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Samoa W
(Home) 05 Mar
Samoa W
2 : 1 Solomon Islands W
02 Mar
American Samoa W
1 : 0 Samoa W
27 Feb
New Zealand W
8 : 0 Samoa W
19 Jul
Fiji W
0 : 2 Samoa W
16 Jul
Solomon Islands W
2 : 1 Samoa W
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05 Mar
Samoa W
2 : 1 Solomon Islands W
10 Jul
Samoa W
3 : 1 Tahiti W
07 Feb
Samoa W
1 : 0 Vanuatu W
01 Dec
Samoa W
1 : 3 New Caledonia W
24 Nov
Samoa W
4 : 1 Tonga W
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Tonga W
(Away) 02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1 Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3 American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1 Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0 Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0 Tonga W
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14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1 Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0 Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0 Tonga W
10 Feb
Vanuatu W
1 : 2 Tonga W
07 Feb
New Zealand W
3 : 0 Tonga W
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Papua New Guinea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:2 | 7 |
| 2 | New Caledonia W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 7 |
| 3 | Cook Islands W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 4 | American Samoa W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:16 | 0 |
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (5th-8th places)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samoa W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 2 | Tahiti W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 3 | Tonga W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | 1 |
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (5th-8th places)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fiji W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 2 | Solomon Islands W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 3 | Vanuatu W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | 0 |
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women (5th-8th places)
