Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D Estadio Lourival Gomes

Nova Iguacu

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sampaio Correa FE play Nova Iguacu in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sampaio Correa FE averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Nova Iguacu averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. In past meetings, Sampaio Correa FE won 1, Nova Iguacu won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Sampaio Correa FE and 0.94 for Nova Iguacu. This points to a Nova Iguacu double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Sampaio Correa FE

33%

Draws

27%

Nova Iguacu

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Sampaio Correa FE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Both Sampaio Correa FE and Nova Iguacu exhibit evenly balanced form metrics in recent matches.
Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Sampaio Correa FE.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 0%

Over 4.5 Goals 0%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Sampaio Correa FE Clean Sheet 68%

Nova Iguacu Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sampaio Correa FE	Nova Iguacu
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	8	8
Draws	8	10
Losses	14	11
Goals Scored	0.75	0.75
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie D

Nova Iguacu vs Sampaio Correa FE

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Apr 25, 2026 Serie D

Sampaio Correa FE vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 52% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Mar 8, 2026 Carioca

Nova Iguacu vs Sampaio Correa FE

Possession: 44% - 56% Cards: 0 - 1

2:0

Feb 23, 2026 Carioca

Sampaio Correa FE vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 2 - 4

1:1

Jan 15, 2026 Carioca

Sampaio Correa FE vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 50% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa FE Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulo Victor

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Nova Iguacu Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa FE 50 / 100

Nova Iguacu 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sampaio Correa FE Nova Iguacu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa FE scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Nova Iguacu let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Sampaio Correa FE went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nova Iguacu lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa FE VS Nova Iguacu

0.75 Goals Scored 0.75

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63

63% Over 1.5 38%

25% Over 2.5 13%

0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manauara	10	6	4	0	13:5	22
2	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	10	6	2	2	15:9	20
3	Sao Raimundo RR	10	3	4	3	10:7	13
4	Monte Roraima	10	2	4	4	11:14	10
5	Manaus FC	10	2	4	4	8:13	10
6	Gremio Atletico Sampaio	10	1	2	7	8:17	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guapore	10	6	4	0	19:9	22
2	Porto Velho	10	5	3	2	33:9	18
3	Araguaina	10	5	3	2	31:9	18
4	Independencia Futebol Clube	10	4	3	3	17:10	15
5	Galvez	10	3	1	6	14:31	10
6	SC Humaita	10	0	0	10	4:50	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gama	10	8	2	0	23:6	26
2	Luverdense	10	4	3	3	11:10	15
3	Brasiliense	10	3	5	2	11:10	14
4	Aparecidense	10	3	4	3	13:12	13
5	Primavera AC	10	3	3	4	10:13	12
6	Inhumas	10	0	1	9	3:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Capital	10	7	2	1	16:6	23
2	Goiatuba EC	10	5	4	1	13:7	19
3	Ceilandia	10	3	3	4	9:10	12
4	Mixto	10	2	6	2	10:9	12
5	Uniao Rondonopolis	10	2	3	5	11:18	9
6	Operario VG	10	1	2	7	7:16	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trem	10	6	2	2	19:13	20
2	Aguia De Maraba	10	5	3	2	20:11	18
3	Imperatriz	10	4	3	3	15:10	15
4	Tuna Luso	10	3	4	3	14:17	13
5	Tocantinopolis	10	3	3	4	18:18	12
6	Oratorio	10	1	1	8	12:29	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iguatu	10	5	5	0	14:7	20
2	Maracana	10	5	4	1	12:6	19
3	Parnahyba	10	4	2	4	11:13	14
4	Sampaio Correa	10	3	4	3	12:6	13
5	Moto Club	10	2	3	5	8:15	9
6	IAPE	10	0	4	6	10:20	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferroviario	10	6	3	1	15:7	21
2	Piaui	10	5	2	3	14:11	17
3	Fluminense-PI	10	3	5	2	12:9	14
4	AE Altos	10	3	2	5	9:15	11
5	Tirol	10	2	4	4	10:10	10
6	Atletico Cearense	10	1	4	5	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ABC	10	7	2	1	15:6	23
2	America RN	10	6	3	1	14:3	21
3	Maguary	10	3	4	3	8:5	13
4	Central SC	10	3	4	3	8:7	13
5	Sousa	10	3	1	6	4:11	10
6	Laguna RN	10	0	2	8	3:20	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Treze PB	10	5	2	3	18:14	17
2	Sergipe	10	4	3	3	15:13	15
3	Serra Branca	10	3	6	1	12:8	15
4	Lagarto	10	3	4	3	14:15	13
5	Retro	10	3	3	4	13:15	12
6	Decisao	10	2	2	6	10:17	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSA	10	6	3	1	25:8	21
2	Juazeirense	10	5	2	3	12:9	17
3	ASA	10	4	4	2	11:7	16
4	Jacuipense	10	3	4	3	12:14	13
5	Clube Sociedade Esportiva	10	2	3	5	10:17	9
6	Alagoinhas	10	1	2	7	5:20	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uberlandia	10	5	3	2	12:8	18
2	Betim FC	10	4	3	3	12:9	15
3	CRAC	10	3	4	3	7:7	13
4	Ivinhema	10	3	4	3	9:12	13
5	ABECAT Ouvidorense	10	3	3	4	8:9	12
6	Operario MS	10	2	3	5	9:12	9

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Democrata GV	10	5	2	3	13:9	17
2	Tombense	10	4	5	1	13:6	17
3	Vitoria ES	10	4	3	3	12:8	15
4	Rio Branco ES	10	3	4	3	14:12	13
5	Porto-BA	10	3	1	6	9:21	10
6	Real Noroeste	10	1	5	4	6:11	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa	10	6	3	1	16:6	21
2	Agua Santa	10	5	2	3	16:8	17
3	Portuguesa RJ	10	3	5	2	14:9	14
4	America RJ	10	3	3	4	11:21	12
5	Madureira	10	3	2	5	11:16	11
6	Pouso Alegre	10	2	1	7	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Piracicaba	10	4	5	1	14:9	17
2	Noroeste	10	4	3	3	12:7	15
3	Velo Clube	10	3	4	3	10:10	13
4	Sampaio Correa FE	10	3	3	4	8:10	12
5	Nova Iguacu	10	3	3	4	7:10	12
6	Marica	10	3	2	5	9:14	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santa Catarina	10	6	1	3	15:9	19
2	Cianorte	10	5	1	4	9:8	16
3	FC Cascavel	10	4	3	3	9:4	15
4	Sao Luiz	10	4	3	3	11:9	15
5	Joinville	10	4	3	3	10:8	15
6	Guarany de Bage	10	1	1	8	2:18	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Blumenau	10	6	1	3	14:8	19
2	Marcilio Dias	10	4	4	2	9:5	16
3	Sao Joseense	10	3	4	3	3:4	13
4	EC Sao Jose (PA)	10	3	4	3	6:8	13
5	Brasil de Pelotas	10	2	4	4	9:12	10
6	Azuriz	10	2	3	5	7:11	9