Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Vagalume
54' Event
Joelson
88' Event
Nadson

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Maranhao advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Sampaio Correa
6%
Draws
4%
Maranhao
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sampaio Correa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Maranhao carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Sampaio Correa a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Maranhao arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Maranhao, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Sampaio Correa Clean Sheet 68%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sampaio Correa Maranhao
Matches Played 35 41
Wins 13 14
Draws 15 10
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Sampaio Correa
0:2
Feb 7, 2026 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao
0:3
Jan 18, 2026 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao
4:2
Jun 28, 2025 Serie D
Maranhao vs Sampaio Correa
2:0
May 21, 2025 Serie D
Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Vagalume
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joelson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa 95 / 100
Maranhao 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sampaio Correa Maranhao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sampaio Correa scored in 63% of their last 35 outings.

Maranhao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 41 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Sampaio Correa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa VS Maranhao
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sampaio Correa

(Home)
27 Jun
Trem
1 : 2
Sampaio Correa
21 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 2
Trem
07 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 1
Iguatu
31 May
IAPE
1 : 3
Sampaio Correa
24 May
Sampaio Correa
4 : 0
Moto Club
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Maranhao

(Away)
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
28 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Maranhao
21 Jun
Maranhao
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
15 Jun
Maringa FC
0 : 0
Maranhao
Page 1 of 9

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Moto Club1
IAPE4
Maranhao3
Sampaio Correa2
Final
IAPE1
Maranhao0