Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2025 Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Jo
30' Event
Fabio Aguiar
72' Event
Thiago Rosa

AI Match Summary

The Maranhense 2025 game between Sampaio Correa and Pinheiro finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sampaio Correa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Sampaio Correa
11%
Draws
9%
Pinheiro
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Sampaio Correa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sampaio Correa come out ahead of Pinheiro on wins alone.
  • Sampaio Correa are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Maranhense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sampaio Correa Clean Sheet 68%
Pinheiro Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sampaio Correa Pinheiro
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 15 10
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2025 Maranhense
Pinheiro vs Sampaio Correa
0:0
Jan 29, 2025 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro
3:1
Feb 22, 2024 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro
2:2
Jan 17, 2024 Maranhense
Pinheiro vs Sampaio Correa
1:2
Jan 18, 2023 Maranhense
Pinheiro vs Sampaio Correa
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa Compare

Top Goalscorer Jo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fabio Aguiar
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Pinheiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Caivano H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa 86 / 100
Pinheiro 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sampaio Correa Pinheiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa scored in 61% of their last 33 games.

Pinheiro let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Sampaio Correa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa VS Pinheiro
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sampaio Correa

(Home)
27 Jun
Trem
1 : 2
Sampaio Correa
21 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 2
Trem
07 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 1
Iguatu
31 May
IAPE
1 : 3
Sampaio Correa
24 May
Sampaio Correa
4 : 0
Moto Club
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Pinheiro

(Away)
18 Jul
Pinheiro
0 : 2
Lago Verde
15 Jul
Sao Luis
0 : 1
Pinheiro
11 Jul
Pinheiro
1 : 1
Sao Luis
28 Jun
Pinheiro
2 : 1
Viana
21 Jun
Lago Verde
0 : 1
Pinheiro
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1IAPE1473418:1324
2Sampaio Correa1465318:1123
3Imperatriz1465317:1023
4Maranhao1465316:1023
5Moto Club1465315:923
6Tuntum1445516:1417
7Pinheiro1444613:1516
8Viana1410135:363
Promotion - Maranhense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 (Main)