Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2025 Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Jo
30' Event
Fabio Aguiar
72' Event
Thiago Rosa

AI Match Summary

The Maranhense 2025 game between Sampaio Correa and Pinheiro finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sampaio Correa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sampaio Correa
20%
Draws
38%
Pinheiro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sampaio Correa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sampaio Correa come out ahead of Pinheiro on wins alone.
  • Sampaio Correa are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Maranhense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Sampaio Correa Clean Sheet 68%
Pinheiro Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sampaio Correa Pinheiro
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 16 11
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.4 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2025 Maranhense
Pinheiro vs Sampaio Correa
0:0
Jan 29, 2025 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro
3:1
Feb 22, 2024 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro
2:2
Jan 17, 2024 Maranhense
Pinheiro vs Sampaio Correa
1:2
Jan 18, 2023 Maranhense
Pinheiro vs Sampaio Correa
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa Compare

Top Goalscorer Jo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fabio Aguiar
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Pinheiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Caivano H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa 86 / 100
Pinheiro 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sampaio Correa Pinheiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sampaio Correa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa scored in 60% of their last 35 games.

Pinheiro let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Sampaio Correa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa VS Pinheiro
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sampaio Correa

(Home)
27 Jun
Trem
1 : 2
Sampaio Correa
21 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 2
Trem
07 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 1
Iguatu
31 May
IAPE
1 : 3
Sampaio Correa
24 May
Sampaio Correa
4 : 0
Moto Club
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Pinheiro

(Away)
22 Jul
Lago Verde
2 : 2
Pinheiro
18 Jul
Pinheiro
0 : 2
Lago Verde
15 Jul
Sao Luis
0 : 1
Pinheiro
11 Jul
Pinheiro
1 : 1
Sao Luis
28 Jun
Pinheiro
2 : 1
Viana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 IAPE 14 7 3 4 18:13 24
2 Sampaio Correa 14 6 5 3 18:11 23
3 Imperatriz 14 6 5 3 17:10 23
4 Maranhao 14 6 5 3 16:10 23
5 Moto Club 14 6 5 3 15:9 23
6 Tuntum 14 4 5 5 16:14 17
7 Pinheiro 14 4 4 6 13:15 16
8 Viana 14 1 0 13 5:36 3
Promotion - Maranhense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 (Main)