Sport Picks
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun 
Match Events
15'
15'
Alemao
Assist: Palazon I.
16'
16'
Holse C.
21'
21'
Mouandilmadji M.
Assist: Holse C.
AI Match Summary
Rayo Vallecano in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rayo Vallecano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Samsunspor have won more games recently than Rayo Vallecano.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Samsunspor have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Rayo Vallecano, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Samsunspor Clean Sheet 11%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Samsunspor | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Conference League
Rayo Vallecano vs Samsunspor
0:1
Mar 12, 2026 Conference League
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Samsunspor Compare
Top Goalscorer Mouandilmadji M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Rayo Vallecano Compare
Top Goalscorer Alemao
2 Goals Assists Leader Garcia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Samsunspor 30 / 100
Rayo Vallecano 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Samsunspor Rayo Vallecano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Samsunspor's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Defensive concern: Rayo Vallecano conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.
Samsunspor went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Samsunspor VS Rayo Vallecano
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Samsunspor
(Home) 20 Sept
Erzurumspor FK
1 : 0 Samsunspor
12 Sept
Samsunspor
1 : 5 Corum FK
06 Sept
Kocaelispor
1 : 0 Samsunspor
30 Aug
Samsunspor
0 : 2 Fenerbahce
22 Aug
Rizespor
0 : 2 Samsunspor
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Samsunspor
1 : 5 Corum FK
30 Aug
Samsunspor
0 : 2 Fenerbahce
17 Aug
Samsunspor
3 : 3 Goztepe
16 May
Samsunspor
3 : 0 Goztepe
02 May
Samsunspor
4 : 1 Galatasaray
Page 1 of 3
Rayo Vallecano
(Away) 19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1 Espanyol
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2 Racing Santander
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
15 Aug
Sevilla
2 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Aug
Ipswich
3 : 0 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0
