Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samtredia vs FC Rustavi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Georgia Georgia

Georgian Cup Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium, Samtredia
Samtredia Logo

Samtredia

1 - 2
FT
FC Rustavi Logo

FC Rustavi

Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Patsatsia V.
52' Event
Jean
(Penalty)
59' Event
Cordero Gonzalez J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Samtredia
15%
Draws
37%
FC Rustavi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samtredia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Samtredia haven't matched FC Rustavi's recent run of results.
  • Samtredia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • FC Rustavi arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FC Rustavi, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and FC Rustavi have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Samtredia Clean Sheet 68%
FC Rustavi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samtredia FC Rustavi
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.79 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Georgian Cup
Samtredia vs FC Rustavi
1:2
Oct 21, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
FC Rustavi vs Samtredia
3:0
Sep 23, 2025 Georgian Cup
FC Rustavi vs Samtredia
1:2
Aug 24, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Samtredia vs FC Rustavi
0:2
May 9, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
FC Rustavi vs Samtredia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samtredia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordero Gonzalez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

FC Rustavi Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakano Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samtredia 95 / 100
FC Rustavi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samtredia FC Rustavi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samtredia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Samtredia scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

FC Rustavi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Samtredia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Samtredia VS FC Rustavi
2.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Samtredia

(Home)
26 Sept
Samtredia
1 : 2
FC Rustavi
20 Sept
Samtredia
5 : 0
Merani Martvili
16 Sept
Kolkheti 1913
1 : 0
Samtredia
12 Sept
Samtredia
6 : 1
FC Gareji Sagarejo
07 Sept
Telavi
0 : 3
Samtredia
Page 1 of 6

FC Rustavi

(Away)
26 Sept
Samtredia
1 : 2
FC Rustavi
21 Sept
FC Rustavi
0 : 2
Iberia 1999
14 Sept
Meshakhte Tkibuli
0 : 1
FC Rustavi
09 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
04 Sept
FC Rustavi
0 : 1
Dinamo Batumi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Basa 2
Locomotive Tbilisi 1
TBD -
FC Gareji Sagarejo -
Samtskhe 4
Didube 1
TBD -
Gagra -
Guria 6
Merani Tbilisi 1
TBD -
Dinamo Tbilisi -
Kolkheti 1913 -
TBD -
Zooveti Tbilisi 0
Dusheti 2
Samtredia -
TBD -
West Georgia 0
Shturmi 2
Torpedo Kutaisi 2 0
Margveti 2006 4
TBD -
Iberia 1999 -
Aragvelebi 0
FC Tbilisi 2025 4
TBD -
FC Rustavi -
Skuri Tsalenjikha 3
Dinamo Tbilisi 2 4
TBD -
Spaeri -
Iveria Khashuri 5
Betlemi Keda 4
TBD -
Torpedo Kutaisi -
Merani Martvili -
TBD -
Gagra 2 1
Odishi 1919 2
FC Rustavi 2 2
Orbi 3
TBD -
Dinamo Batumi -
Merani Martvili 2 1
Iberia 1999 2 2
TBD -
Telavi -
Mertskhali 1
Gori 3
TBD -
Bolnisi -
FC Gardabani 1
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi 5
TBD -
Dila Gori -
Dmanisi 0
WIT Georgia 3
TBD -
Samgurali -
Dinamo Sokhumi 0
Gonio 3
TBD -
Meshakhte Tkibuli -
1/16-finals
Basa 0
FC Gareji Sagarejo 2
Samtskhe 1
Gagra 2
Guria 1
Dinamo Tbilisi 0
Kolkheti 1913 0
Dusheti 1
Samtredia 2
Shturmi 1
Margveti 2006 1
Iberia 1999 3
FC Tbilisi 2025 0
FC Rustavi 1
Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1
Spaeri 5
Iveria Khashuri 1
Torpedo Kutaisi 3
Merani Martvili 1
Odishi 1919 2
Orbi 1
Dinamo Batumi 4
Iberia 1999 2 0
Telavi 1
Gori 1
Bolnisi 0
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi 0
Dila Gori 1
WIT Georgia 2
Samgurali 3
Gonio 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli 2
1/8-finals
FC Gareji Sagarejo 1
Gagra 4
Guria 1
Dusheti 2
Samtredia 2
Iberia 1999 0
FC Rustavi 3
Spaeri 1
Torpedo Kutaisi 4
Odishi 1919 1
Dinamo Batumi 1
Telavi 0
Gori 0
Dila Gori 2
Samgurali 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli 0
Quarter-finals
Gagra 1
Dusheti 0
Samtredia 1
FC Rustavi 2
Torpedo Kutaisi 2
Dinamo Batumi 4
Dila Gori 2
Samgurali 1
Semi-finals
Gagra -
FC Rustavi -
Dinamo Batumi -
Dila Gori -
Final
TBD -
TBD -