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San Carlos vs Alajuelense

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez, Ciudad Quesada
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Sub
Pilone M. In: Parkins R.
Out: Pilone M.
39'
Sub
Vargas K. In: Badilla I.
Out: Vargas K.
45' Event
Borges C.

AI Match Summary

Alajuelense in this Primera Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alajuelense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
San Carlos
39%
Draws
31%
Alajuelense
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alajuelense lately — more wins on the board than San Carlos.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Alajuelense have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
San Carlos Clean Sheet 68%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Carlos Alajuelense
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 7 12
Draws 5 9
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Alajuelense
0:2
Jan 25, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Alajuelense
0:2
Sep 17, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
2:0
Mar 28, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Carlos Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Borges C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Carlos 41 / 100
Alajuelense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Carlos Alajuelense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Carlos's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Alajuelense has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

San Carlos has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Carlos VS Alajuelense
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Carlos

(Home)
26 Jul
San Carlos
0 : 3
Escorpiones
25 Apr
San Carlos
1 : 1
Zeledon
22 Apr
Cartagines
2 : 1
San Carlos
19 Apr
Herediano
1 : 0
San Carlos
13 Apr
San Carlos
4 : 0
Guadalupe
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Alajuelense

(Away)
26 Jul
Sporting FC
1 : 1
Alajuelense
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)