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San Carlos vs Guadalupe

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez, Ciudad Quesada
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Aguilar J.
25'
Fonseca P.
38' Event
Cordoba R.

AI Match Summary

San Carlos in this Primera Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored San Carlos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
San Carlos
15%
Draws
7%
Guadalupe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Carlos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Guadalupe haven't matched San Carlos's recent run of results.
  • Model gives San Carlos a 78% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors San Carlos here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
San Carlos Clean Sheet 68%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Carlos Guadalupe
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 4
Draws 4 7
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.03 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.33 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Guadalupe
4:0
Feb 14, 2026 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs San Carlos
3:4
Oct 25, 2025 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Guadalupe
1:1
Sep 12, 2025 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs San Carlos
2:3
Apr 19, 2023 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs San Carlos
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Carlos Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cordoba R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Guadalupe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Carlos 95 / 100
Guadalupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Carlos Guadalupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Carlos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalupe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

San Carlos found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

San Carlos went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Carlos VS Guadalupe
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

San Carlos

(Home)
21 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Cartagines
12 Sept
Zeledon
0 : 2
San Carlos
07 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Sporting FC
30 Aug
San Carlos
1 : 2
Puntarenas FC
24 Aug
Alajuelense
0 : 1
San Carlos
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Guadalupe

(Away)
19 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 3
FC Moravia
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
06 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 1
CS Uruguay
29 Aug
Cariari Pococi
3 : 3
Guadalupe
25 Aug
Guadalupe
0 : 1
Carmelita
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 18 12 2 4 26:10 38
2 Saprissa 18 10 4 4 34:19 34
3 Liberia 18 10 3 5 24:18 33
4 Cartagines 18 10 2 6 26:20 32
5 Alajuelense 18 7 5 6 28:20 26
6 Sporting FC 18 6 4 8 16:21 22
7 San Carlos 18 6 3 9 21:25 21
8 Puntarenas FC 18 4 4 10 22:29 16
9 Zeledon 18 2 8 8 19:30 14
10 Guadalupe 18 3 5 10 13:37 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)