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San Carlos vs Herediano

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez, Ciudad Quesada
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Sub
Castillo Cespedes G. In: Masis D.
Out: Castillo Cespedes G.
33' Event
Aguilar J.
42'
Aguilar J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between San Carlos and Herediano finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Carlos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
San Carlos
15%
Draws
28%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Carlos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Herediano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans San Carlos's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
San Carlos Clean Sheet 68%
Herediano Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Carlos Herediano
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 16
Draws 4 4
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.03 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Herediano
1:0
Apr 19, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs San Carlos
1:0
Feb 23, 2026 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Herediano
1:0
Nov 30, 2025 Primera Division
Herediano vs San Carlos
3:1
Aug 25, 2025 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Herediano
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Carlos Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Herediano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Carlos 95 / 100
Herediano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Carlos Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Carlos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Carlos found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: San Carlos stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Herediano has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

San Carlos VS Herediano
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

San Carlos

(Home)
21 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Cartagines
12 Sept
Zeledon
0 : 2
San Carlos
07 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Sporting FC
30 Aug
San Carlos
1 : 2
Puntarenas FC
24 Aug
Alajuelense
0 : 1
San Carlos
Page 1 of 6

Herediano

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 18 12 2 4 26:10 38
2 Saprissa 18 10 4 4 34:19 34
3 Liberia 18 10 3 5 24:18 33
4 Cartagines 18 10 2 6 26:20 32
5 Alajuelense 18 7 5 6 28:20 26
6 Sporting FC 18 6 4 8 16:21 22
7 San Carlos 18 6 3 9 21:25 21
8 Puntarenas FC 18 4 4 10 22:29 16
9 Zeledon 18 2 8 8 19:30 14
10 Guadalupe 18 3 5 10 13:37 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)