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San Donato Tavarnelle vs Grosseto

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Marzierli E.

AI Match Summary

Grosseto in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grosseto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
San Donato Tavarnelle
33%
Draws
27%
Grosseto
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: San Donato Tavarnelle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Grosseto has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to San Donato Tavarnelle.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for San Donato Tavarnelle.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D - Group E provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 68%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Donato Tavarnelle Grosseto
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 20
Draws 12 5
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 0.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs San Donato Tavarnelle
0:2
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Grosseto
0:1
Aug 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Grosseto vs San Donato Tavarnelle
2:1
Apr 8, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs San Donato Tavarnelle
0:0
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Grosseto
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Donato Tavarnelle Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Grosseto Compare

Top Goalscorer Marzierli E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Donato Tavarnelle 50 / 100
Grosseto 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Donato Tavarnelle Grosseto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Donato Tavarnelle scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Grosseto let in goals in 52% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

San Donato Tavarnelle went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Grosseto lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Donato Tavarnelle VS Grosseto
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622