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San Gwann vs Mtarfa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2022/2023
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AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2022/2023 game between San Gwann and Mtarfa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Gwann.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
San Gwann
15%
Draws
0%
Mtarfa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Gwann

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and San Gwann come out ahead of Mtarfa on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on San Gwann taking it.
  • Regular Challenge League 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
San Gwann Clean Sheet 20%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Gwann Mtarfa
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 3
Losses 13 25
Goals Scored 1.23 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.7 3.19
Expected Goals (xG) 2.67 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Challenge League
San Gwann vs Mtarfa
2:1
Aug 28, 2022 Challenge League
San Gwann vs Mtarfa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Gwann 85 / 100
Mtarfa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Gwann Mtarfa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Gwann Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtarfa has conceded goals in 92% of their last 36 outings.

Away concern: Mtarfa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

San Gwann scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mtarfa
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 4.13
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

San Gwann

(Home)
23 Apr
Swieqi
2 : 0
San Gwann
15 Apr
Mqabba FC
1 : 3
San Gwann
08 Apr
San Gwann
2 : 1
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Marsa
1 : 2
San Gwann
11 Mar
San Gwann
1 : 1
Marsaskala FC
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Mtarfa

(Away)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
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