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San Lorenzo vs 4 de Mayo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa Paraguay Estadio Juan Jose Vazquez, San Estanislao
San Lorenzo Logo

San Lorenzo

2 - 1
FT
4 de Mayo Logo

4 de Mayo

Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Salcedo S.
(Penalty)
76' Event
Duarte J.
82' Event
Antunez Centurion F. A.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
San Lorenzo
25%
Draws
35%
4 de Mayo
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: San Lorenzo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • 4 de Mayo haven't matched San Lorenzo's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • San Lorenzo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor San Lorenzo, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 15%
4 de Mayo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Lorenzo 4 de Mayo
Matches Played 28 2
Wins 5 1
Draws 7 0
Losses 16 1
Goals Scored 0.61 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2026 Copa Paraguay
San Lorenzo vs 4 de Mayo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Lorenzo Compare

Top Goalscorer Duarte J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

4 de Mayo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Lorenzo 31 / 100
4 de Mayo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Lorenzo 4 de Mayo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick 4 de Mayo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: 4 de Mayo conceded in 100% of 2 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

San Lorenzo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

San Lorenzo's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

San Lorenzo VS 4 de Mayo
0.5 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

San Lorenzo

(Home)
03 Oct
Guarani
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
28 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 0
Recoleta
23 Sept
San Lorenzo
2 : 1
4 de Mayo
20 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 3
Olimpia Asuncion
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0
San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 6

4 de Mayo

(Away)
23 Sept
San Lorenzo
2 : 1
4 de Mayo
11 Aug
4 de Mayo
3 : 2
Fulgencio Yegros

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Resistencia 0
Cerro Porteno 1
General Caballero JLM 2
Rubio Nu 3
29 de Septiembre FBC 1
San Lorenzo 2
4 de Mayo 3
Fulgencio Yegros 2
1 de Marzo Pilar 2
Atletico Tembetary 3
Sportivo Iteno 2
Guarani 1
Deportivo Humaita FBC 1
2 de Mayo 4
Sol de America 2
Sportivo Trinidense 1
Cristobal Colon FC 3
Olimpia Asuncion 5
Paraguari AC 0
Sp. Luqueno 2
Deportivo Santani 0
Recoleta 2
Guairena FC 3
12 de Octubre 2
Obrero 0
Fernando de la Mora 3
Tacuary 0
Libertad Asuncion 1
Independiente FBC 1
Sportivo Ameliano 0
Benjamin Aceval 0
Nacional Asuncion 2
1/8-finals
Cerro Porteno 2
Rubio Nu 1
San Lorenzo 2
4 de Mayo 1
Atletico Tembetary 2
Sportivo Iteno 0
2 de Mayo 0
Sol de America 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Sp. Luqueno 2
Recoleta 3
Guairena FC 1
Fernando de la Mora 1
Libertad Asuncion 2
Independiente FBC 3
Nacional Asuncion 2
Quarter-finals
Cerro Porteno -
San Lorenzo -
Atletico Tembetary -
Sol de America -
Sp. Luqueno -
Recoleta -
Libertad Asuncion -
Independiente FBC -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -