Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Luca vs Nuova Gioiese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
De Marco G.
(Penalty)
51' Event
Kalombola E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between San Luca and Nuova Gioiese finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
San Luca
30%
Draws
34%
Nuova Gioiese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: San Luca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and San Luca come out ahead of Nuova Gioiese on wins alone.
  • Model gives San Luca a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
San Luca Clean Sheet 20%
Nuova Gioiese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Luca Nuova Gioiese
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 2
Draws 10 3
Losses 14 24
Goals Scored 0.75 1
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs San Luca
2:1
Nov 2, 2023 Serie D - Group I
San Luca vs Nuova Gioiese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Luca Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalombola E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Nuova Gioiese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Luca 36 / 100
Nuova Gioiese 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Luca Nuova Gioiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nuova Gioiese let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

San Luca found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Difficult form: Nuova Gioiese registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Luca VS Nuova Gioiese
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

San Luca

(Home)
12 May
San Luca
0 : 2
Locri 1909
05 May
Canicatti
4 : 2
San Luca
28 Apr
San Luca
0 : 1
Real Casalnuovo
21 Apr
Akragas
1 : 2
San Luca
14 Apr
San Luca
0 : 1
Vibonese
Page 1 of 6

Nuova Gioiese

(Away)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
1 : 2
Trapani
21 Apr
USD Ragusa
2 : 1
Nuova Gioiese
14 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
2 : 2
S. Agata
28 Mar
Licata
4 : 0
Nuova Gioiese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Trapani34304095:1594
2Siracusa34256379:2681
3Vibonese34226667:2972
4Reggina34198754:2565
5AS Acireale341591039:4154
6S. Agata341571246:3552
7Real Casalnuovo341561352:4951
8USD Ragusa341481241:3850
9Canicatti341461455:5148
10Igea Virtus341361538:4045
11Licata341271543:5443
12Akragas341261642:5342
13Sancataldese349101532:4337
14Portici 190634881832:5532
15San Luca346121637:5529
16Locri 190934772034:6828
17Castrovillari342122029:7617
18Nuova Gioiese34322918:8011
19Lamezia Terme00000:00
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)