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San Marcial vs Agoncillo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Brun L.
28' Event
Iza
31' Event
Hafidh Bouklata A.

AI Match Summary

San Marcial in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored San Marcial.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
San Marcial
35%
Draws
37%
Agoncillo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Agoncillo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Agoncillo lately — more wins on the board than San Marcial.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 12%
Agoncillo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcial Agoncillo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Agoncillo
4:3
Dec 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Agoncillo vs San Marcial
3:2
Apr 30, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Agoncillo vs San Marcial
4:2
Dec 4, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Agoncillo
2:1
Jan 16, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Agoncillo vs San Marcial
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcial Compare

Top Goalscorer Iza
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hafidh Bouklata A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Agoncillo Compare

Top Goalscorer Brun L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Peso A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcial 30 / 100
Agoncillo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcial Agoncillo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Agoncillo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Agoncillo conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: San Marcial scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

San Marcial has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Marcial VS Agoncillo
1 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marcial

(Home)
04 Oct
San Marcial
1 : 1
River Ebro
27 Sept
Berceo
2 : 1
San Marcial
18 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 1
Comillas CF
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 0
Vianes
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Agoncillo

(Away)
04 Oct
Agoncillo
2 : 0
Vianes
26 Sept
Casalarreina CF
1 : 5
Agoncillo
18 Sept
Agoncillo
3 : 5
CD Calahorra
13 Sept
Anguiano
1 : 1
Agoncillo
05 Sept
Agoncillo
1 : 1
Haro Deportivo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)