Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 16 2016/2017

Casalarreina CF

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

San Marcial play Casalarreina CF in the Tercera Division - Group 16 2016/2017. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Marcial averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Casalarreina CF averaged 1.32 goals scored and 2.47 conceded. In past meetings, San Marcial won 1, Casalarreina CF won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 9, 2017 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for San Marcial and 1.25 for Casalarreina CF. This points to a San Marcial double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

San Marcial

19%

Draws

37%

Casalarreina CF

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: San Marcial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

San Marcial picked up more points recently compared to Casalarreina CF.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

San Marcial Clean Sheet 19%

Casalarreina CF Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	San Marcial	Casalarreina CF
Matches Played	30	34
Wins	9	11
Draws	9	3
Losses	12	20
Goals Scored	1.13	1.32
Goals Conceded	1.7	2.47

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

San Marcial vs Casalarreina CF

Possession: 51% - 50% Cards: 2 - 1

3:1

Nov 13, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Casalarreina CF vs San Marcial

Possession: 49% - 57% Cards: 1 - 0

4:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcial 43 / 100

Casalarreina CF 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

San Marcial Casalarreina CF

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: San Marcial or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marcial attacking → ← attacking Casalarreina CF

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marcial scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Casalarreina CF let in goals in 88% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

San Marcial went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Casalarreina CF lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 36

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Calahorra	38	30	5	3	116:20	95
2	Naxara	38	28	7	3	117:30	91
3	SD Logrones	38	29	4	5	110:25	91
4	Anguiano	38	29	4	5	115:40	91
5	Haro Deportivo	38	28	7	3	115:33	91
6	Varea	37	27	4	6	91:28	85
7	Alfaro	38	24	3	11	78:56	75
8	UD Logrones B	38	20	5	13	64:45	65
9	Agoncillo	38	13	6	19	50:60	45
10	Oyonesa	38	11	6	21	45:74	39
11	Vianes	37	12	2	23	45:112	38
12	CD Tedeon	38	9	10	19	43:68	37
13	Arnedo	38	8	11	19	39:67	35
14	River Ebro	37	9	8	20	48:80	35
15	Casalarreina CF	38	9	6	23	42:78	33
16	Villegas	38	9	6	23	37:85	33
17	Calasancio	38	8	7	23	24:77	31
18	CDFC La Calzada	38	8	5	25	35:84	29
19	San Marcial	37	5	7	25	44:106	22
20	CF Rapid	38	2	7	29	24:114	13