Sport Picks
San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes
Chile
Liga de Ascenso Estadio Carlos Dittborn, Arica 
Match Events
10'
10'
Cubillos G.
33'
33'
Rencoret C.
36'
36'
Walters A.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Ascenso game between San Marcos de Arica and Magallanes finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Marcos de Arica.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and San Marcos de Arica come out ahead of Magallanes on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular Liga de Ascenso form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
San Marcos de Arica Clean Sheet 68%
Magallanes Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | San Marcos de Arica | Magallanes |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes
2:0
Mar 2, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Magallanes vs San Marcos de Arica
1:1
Jul 29, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes
2:2
Mar 7, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Magallanes vs San Marcos de Arica
0:1
Aug 31, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
San Marcos de Arica Compare
Top Goalscorer Melivilu Fuentes C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Benavides E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Magallanes Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
San Marcos de Arica 41 / 100
Magallanes 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
San Marcos de Arica Magallanes
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Magallanes conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.
Magallanes lost 5 of their last 5 games.
San Marcos de Arica found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Scoring Trends
San Marcos de Arica VS Magallanes
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
San Marcos de Arica
(Home) 26 Jul
San Marcos de Arica
2 : 0 Magallanes
06 Jul
Limache
4 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
27 Jun
San Marcos de Arica
0 : 1 Coquimbo
20 Jun
San Marcos de Arica
1 : 3 Limache
06 Jun
San Luis
1 : 0 San Marcos de Arica
Page 1 of 7
26 Jul
San Marcos de Arica
2 : 0 Magallanes
27 Jun
San Marcos de Arica
0 : 1 Coquimbo
20 Jun
San Marcos de Arica
1 : 3 Limache
31 May
San Marcos de Arica
0 : 1 Deportes Temuco
17 May
San Marcos de Arica
1 : 1 Antofagasta
Page 1 of 3
Magallanes
(Away) 26 Jul
San Marcos de Arica
2 : 0 Magallanes
11 Jul
Magallanes
0 : 1 A. Italiano
04 Jul
Magallanes
1 : 2 Palestino
27 Jun
A. Italiano
2 : 1 Magallanes
20 Jun
Palestino
4 : 1 Magallanes
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
San Marcos de Arica
2 : 0 Magallanes
27 Jun
A. Italiano
2 : 1 Magallanes
20 Jun
Palestino
4 : 1 Magallanes
07 Jun
Antofagasta
0 : 0 Magallanes
25 May
San Luis
2 : 1 Magallanes
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 2 | S. Wanderers | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 31:18 | 29 |
| 3 | San Marcos de Arica | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21:11 | 28 |
| 4 | San Luis | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26:22 | 26 |
| 5 | D. Puerto Montt | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20:18 | 26 |
| 6 | U. Espanola | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Deportes Temuco | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26:19 | 23 |
| 8 | Antofagasta | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 24:19 | 23 |
| 9 | Copiapo | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21:23 | 23 |
| 10 | Recoleta | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 25:26 | 22 |
| 11 | Magallanes | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24:26 | 22 |
| 12 | Curico Unido | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 17:26 | 18 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 16 |
| 14 | San Felipe | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13:29 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 21:30 | 12 |
| 16 | Rangers | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 11:28 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga de Primera 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda Division 2027 (Main)
