Sport Picks

Argentina

Torneo Federal 17 De Octubre

Sarmiento Resistencia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

San Martin Formosa play Sarmiento Resistencia in the Torneo Federal. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Martin Formosa averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Sarmiento Resistencia averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, San Martin Formosa won 3, Sarmiento Resistencia won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 21, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for San Martin Formosa and 0.94 for Sarmiento Resistencia. This points to a San Martin Formosa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

San Martin Formosa

27%

Draws

27%

Sarmiento Resistencia

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: San Martin Formosa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

San Martin Formosa picked up more points recently compared to Sarmiento Resistencia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

San Martin Formosa Clean Sheet 24%

Sarmiento Resistencia Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	San Martin Formosa	Sarmiento Resistencia
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	14	9
Draws	5	8
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1.52	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.21	1.43
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Torneo Federal

San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento Resistencia

Possession: 40% - 44% Cards: 4 - 1

3:0

Apr 18, 2026 Torneo Federal

Sarmiento Resistencia vs San Martin Formosa

Possession: 41% - 56% Cards: 4 - 0

1:1

Jul 13, 2025 Torneo Federal

Sarmiento Resistencia vs San Martin Formosa

Possession: 44% - 55% Cards: 0 - 3

1:1

May 10, 2025 Torneo Federal

San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento Resistencia

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 1 - 4

5:0

Jun 15, 2024 Torneo Federal

Sarmiento Resistencia vs San Martin Formosa

Possession: 49% - 42% Cards: 4 - 4

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Martin Formosa Compare

Top Goalscorer Siergiejuk M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Leiva D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

Sarmiento Resistencia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Martin Formosa 46 / 100

Sarmiento Resistencia 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

San Martin Formosa Sarmiento Resistencia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: San Martin Formosa or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21%

2.63

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Martin Formosa attacking → ← attacking Sarmiento Resistencia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Martin Formosa scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Sarmiento Resistencia let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

San Martin Formosa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sarmiento Resistencia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 35

2.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sportivo Belgrano	16	7	7	2	19:7	28
2	Douglas Haig	16	8	4	4	19:12	28
3	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	16	7	4	5	15:10	25
4	9 de Julio Rafaela	16	7	4	5	26:23	25
5	Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo	16	6	5	5	20:17	23
6	Sportivo Las Parejas	16	5	7	4	11:12	22
7	Independiente Chivilcoy	16	4	6	6	13:19	18
8	Atletico Escobar	16	5	3	8	17:26	18
9	Gimnasia E.R.	16	4	4	8	12:17	16
10	El Linqueno	16	3	4	9	11:20	13

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	14	8	3	3	24:17	27
2	Bartolome Mitre	14	6	5	3	12:6	23
3	Sol de America	14	7	2	5	15:10	23
4	Sarmiento de La Banda	14	6	3	5	14:14	21
5	Juventud Antoniana	14	5	4	5	13:10	19
6	Defensores de Vilelas	15	6	1	8	21:25	19
7	Boca Unidos	14	5	3	6	17:19	18
8	Tucuman Central	14	5	1	8	12:15	16
9	Sarmiento Resistencia	15	2	6	7	10:22	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cipolletti	15	6	4	5	18:15	22
2	Argentino MM	14	5	6	3	15:11	21
3	Biblioteca Atenas	14	6	3	5	12:13	21
4	Fundacion Amigos	14	4	7	3	17:14	19
5	Huracan Las Heras	14	5	4	5	10:13	19
6	Costa Brava	15	4	6	5	12:12	18
7	San Martin Mendoza	14	4	5	5	10:14	17
8	Juventud U.U.	14	3	7	4	10:9	16
9	Deportivo Rincon	14	4	4	6	12:15	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alvarado	15	7	5	3	19:7	26
2	Kimberley	15	6	7	2	14:8	25
3	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	14	6	7	1	10:4	25
4	Villa Mitre	14	4	7	3	8:5	19
5	Germinal	14	4	6	4	7:11	18
6	Sol de Mayo	14	4	5	5	11:12	17
7	Guillermo Brown	14	3	5	6	11:17	14
8	Santamarina	14	2	6	6	9:15	12
9	Circulo Deportivo	14	1	6	7	4:14	9