Sport Picks
Match Events
38'
38'
Cruz A.
Own Goal
84'
84'
Martin H.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between San Miguel and Panaderia finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Panaderia carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
San Miguel Clean Sheet 68%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | San Miguel | Panaderia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 0.76 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Panaderia
1:1
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs San Miguel
3:1
Jan 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Panaderia
2:1
Sep 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs San Miguel
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
San Miguel Compare
Top Goalscorer Martin H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Panaderia Compare
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
San Miguel 41 / 100
Panaderia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
San Miguel Panaderia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick San Miguel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
San Miguel's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Defensive concern: Panaderia conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.
San Miguel went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
San Miguel VS Panaderia
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
San Miguel
(Home) 03 Oct
San Miguel
2 : 0 Tenerife C
27 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0 San Miguel
19 Sept
San Miguel
3 : 1 Villa Santa Brigida
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1 San Miguel
10 May
Las Palmas C
0 : 1 San Miguel
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
San Miguel
2 : 0 Tenerife C
19 Sept
San Miguel
3 : 1 Villa Santa Brigida
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1 Panaderia
18 Apr
San Miguel
2 : 0 CD Marino
08 Apr
San Miguel
1 : 2 UD San Fernando
Page 1 of 3
Panaderia
(Away) 03 Oct
Panaderia
5 : 2 Anaza
26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0 Panaderia
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3 Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2 Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0 Panaderia
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2 Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1 Panaderia
22 Apr
Las Palmas C
1 : 0 Panaderia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Paso | 34 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 51:19 | 67 |
| 2 | UD San Fernando | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 49:23 | 66 |
| 3 | Mensajero | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51:31 | 63 |
| 4 | Tamaraceite | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 56:36 | 63 |
| 5 | Panaderia | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 47:33 | 55 |
| 6 | Las Palmas C | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 58:42 | 54 |
| 7 | Tenerife C | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 49:46 | 52 |
| 8 | Villa Santa Brigida | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 42:35 | 50 |
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:36 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Union Tenerife | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 34:32 | 45 |
| 11 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37:43 | 39 |
| 12 | CD Marino | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 44:40 | 39 |
| 13 | Union Sur Yaiza | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:43 | 38 |
| 14 | San Bartolome | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 30:55 | 36 |
| 15 | Arucas | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 31:47 | 33 |
| 16 | Herbania | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39:58 | 32 |
| 17 | SD Tenisca | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:68 | 25 |
| 18 | Telde | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 30:71 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
