Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Miguel vs UD San Fernando

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Martin H.
33' Event
Serbourdin S.
40' Event
Martel J.

AI Match Summary

UD San Fernando in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD San Fernando.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
San Miguel
39%
Draws
31%
UD San Fernando
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • UD San Fernando have won more games recently than San Miguel.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors UD San Fernando here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
San Miguel Clean Sheet 68%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Miguel UD San Fernando
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 16
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.63 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs UD San Fernando
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs San Miguel
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs San Miguel
3:0
Oct 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs UD San Fernando
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Miguel Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

UD San Fernando Compare

Top Goalscorer Serbourdin S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martel J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Miguel 41 / 100
UD San Fernando 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Miguel UD San Fernando

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Miguel scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: San Miguel remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

UD San Fernando's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

San Miguel VS UD San Fernando
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico Paso341813351:1967
2UD San Fernando34199649:2366
3Mensajero34189751:3163
4Tamaraceite34196956:3663
5Panaderia341510947:3355
6Las Palmas C341591058:4254
7Tenerife C3414101049:4652
8Villa Santa Brigida341551442:3550
9Lanzarote3412121045:3648
10Real Union Tenerife341291334:3245
11San Miguel341091537:4339
12CD Marino348151144:4039
13Union Sur Yaiza341081633:4338
14San Bartolome348121430:5536
15Arucas347121531:4733
16Herbania347111639:5832
17SD Tenisca34672132:6825
18Telde345101930:7125