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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Logo

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

4 - 2
FT
Nagoya Grampus Logo

Nagoya Grampus

Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Nakamura S.
Assist: Kawabe H.
42'
Kawabe H.
45' Event
Yamagishi Y.
Assist: Takamine T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Nagoya Grampus finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
15%
Draws
17%
Nagoya Grampus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sanfrecce Hiroshima come out ahead of Nagoya Grampus on wins alone.
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Clean Sheet 20%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanfrecce Hiroshima Nagoya Grampus
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 18 11
Draws 2 1
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.18 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
3:0
May 23, 2026 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
4:2
Mar 18, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2:1
Aug 27, 2025 Emperors Cup
Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2:4
Jun 28, 2025 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakamura S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kawabe H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Nagoya Grampus Compare

Top Goalscorer Yamagishi Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morishima T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85 / 100
Nagoya Grampus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Nagoya Grampus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanfrecce Hiroshima's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Nagoya Grampus let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sanfrecce Hiroshima VS Nagoya Grampus
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

(Home)
07 Oct
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4 : 0
Iwaki
29 Sept
Tochigi City
0 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Page 1 of 6

Nagoya Grampus

(Away)
29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3
Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)