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Sanjoanense vs Penalva do Castelo

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sanjoanense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sanjoanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Sanjoanense
20%
Draws
7%
Penalva do Castelo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sanjoanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sanjoanense lately — more wins on the board than Penalva do Castelo.
  • Win probability leans Sanjoanense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 68%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanjoanense Penalva do Castelo
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 8 7
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 1.34 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Sanjoanense vs Penalva do Castelo
5:0
Oct 14, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Sanjoanense
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanjoanense 95 / 100
Penalva do Castelo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanjoanense Penalva do Castelo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanjoanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penalva do Castelo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Sanjoanense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Sanjoanense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sanjoanense VS Penalva do Castelo
1.38 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanjoanense

(Home)
20 Sept
Anca
1 : 4
Sanjoanense
13 Sept
Florgrade
2 : 0
Sanjoanense
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Sanjoanense
3 : 0
Pacos de Brandao
23 Aug
SC Salgueiros
1 : 1
Sanjoanense
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Penalva do Castelo

(Away)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)