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Sanremese vs Casale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
La Rotonda D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Sanremese and Casale finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sanremese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Sanremese
35%
Draws
19%
Casale
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sanremese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sanremese come out ahead of Casale on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Sanremese's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sanremese have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Sanremese Clean Sheet 20%
Casale Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanremese Casale
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 1
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 24
Goals Scored 1.27 0.5
Goals Conceded 0.83 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Sanremese vs Casale
1:0
Dec 4, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Sanremese
0:3
Feb 13, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Sanremese
1:3
Oct 6, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Sanremese vs Casale
1:2
Jun 13, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Sanremese
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sanremese Compare

Top Goalscorer La Rotonda D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Casale Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanremese 67 / 100
Casale 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanremese Casale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanremese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Casale conceded in 97% of 30 recent games.

Sanremese's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Sanremese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sanremese VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanremese

(Home)
27 Sept
Gozzano
2 : 1
Sanremese
20 Sept
Sanremese
2 : 2
Saluzzo
16 Sept
Chisola
1 : 0
Sanremese
12 Sept
Sanremese
1 : 0
Celle Varazze
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
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Casale

(Away)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)