Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Rivas Villafruela B.
90' Event
Guerrero A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Santa Amalia and SP Villafranca finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SP Villafranca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Santa Amalia
30%
Draws
31%
SP Villafranca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santa Amalia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • SP Villafranca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Santa Amalia a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 68%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Amalia SP Villafranca
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca
0:2
Dec 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Santa Amalia
1:2
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca
1:1
Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Santa Amalia
2:0
Jan 29, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Santa Amalia
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Amalia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivas Villafruela B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guerrero A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Amalia 68 / 100
SP Villafranca 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Amalia SP Villafranca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Amalia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Santa Amalia scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

SP Villafranca let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Santa Amalia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Amalia VS SP Villafranca
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Amalia

(Home)
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0
Quintana
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
03 May
Santa Amalia
0 : 2
Moralo
Page 1 of 6

SP Villafranca

(Away)
20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1
Villanovense
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
SP Villafranca
1 : 4
CD Azuaga
08 Aug
SP Villafranca
3 : 3
CD Badajoz
29 Jul
SP Villafranca
1 : 5
CD Extremadura
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)