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Santa Catarina vs Avai

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Bruninho
27'
Kaue Oliveira
31'
Galdino

AI Match Summary

Santa Catarina in this Catarinense matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Catarina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Santa Catarina
17%
Draws
13%
Avai
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Santa Catarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Avai average 1.38 goals a game right now, well clear of Santa Catarina's 1.33.
  • Win probability leans Santa Catarina's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Avai here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Santa Catarina Clean Sheet 68%
Avai Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Catarina Avai
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 14 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.33 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.67 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
3:0
Feb 14, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Catarina Compare

Top Goalscorer Galdino
1 Goals
Assists Leader Adriel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Josmar
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Catarina 77 / 100
Avai 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Catarina Avai

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Catarina's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Avai let in goals in 67% of their last 36 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Santa Catarina has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santa Catarina VS Avai
1.33 Goals Scored 1.38
0.67 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
33% Over 2.5 75%
17% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brusque63309:612
2Avai63128:710
3Camboriu62318:69
4Concordia62135:107
5Marcilio Dias62046:66
6Joinville60153:141
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Catarina633010:512
2Chapecoense-SC632111:511
3Criciuma632110:811
4Barra FC (Santa Catarina)63038:59
5Figueirense62136:87
6Carlos Renaux61144:84