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Santa Cruz de Natal vs QFC

Brazil Brazil

Potiguar
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Vitinho
45' Event
Natan Masiero
58' Event
Victor Souza

AI Match Summary

The Potiguar game between Santa Cruz de Natal and QFC finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward QFC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Santa Cruz de Natal
35%
Draws
41%
QFC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: QFC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • QFC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on QFC taking it.
  • Regular Potiguar form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors QFC here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Santa Cruz de Natal Clean Sheet 10%
QFC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz de Natal QFC
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 12 19
Draws 7 7
Losses 18 4
Goals Scored 1.05 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.68 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Potiguar
QFC vs Santa Cruz de Natal
2:0
Feb 28, 2026 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs QFC
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs QFC
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz de Natal Compare

Top Goalscorer Natan Masiero
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

QFC Compare

Top Goalscorer de Oliveira P. C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vitinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz de Natal 10 / 100
QFC 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz de Natal QFC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick QFC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Santa Cruz de Natal scored in 65% of their last 37 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Santa Cruz de Natal went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

QFC let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz de Natal VS QFC
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
2.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz de Natal

(Home)
04 Mar
QFC
2 : 0
Santa Cruz de Natal
28 Feb
Santa Cruz de Natal
1 : 1
QFC
08 Feb
America RN
3 : 0
Santa Cruz de Natal
04 Feb
Santa Cruz de Natal
3 : 3
Laguna RN
01 Feb
Globo FC
2 : 2
Santa Cruz de Natal
Page 1 of 8

QFC

(Away)
14 Mar
ABC
3 : 1
QFC
08 Mar
QFC
1 : 3
ABC
04 Mar
QFC
2 : 0
Santa Cruz de Natal
28 Feb
Santa Cruz de Natal
1 : 1
QFC
07 Feb
ABC
1 : 1
QFC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America RN 7 5 2 0 16:3 17
2 ABC 7 4 3 0 16:5 15
3 QFC 7 4 2 1 14:5 14
4 Potiguar de Mossoró 7 4 2 1 7:3 14
5 Laguna RN 7 1 2 4 12:17 5
6 Santa Cruz de Natal 7 1 2 4 9:19 5
7 Potyguar Seridoense 7 1 1 5 8:19 4
8 Globo FC 7 0 2 5 7:18 2
Promotion - Potiguar (Play Offs)
Promotion - Potiguar (Play Offs)
Relegation - Potiguar 2 2027 (Main)