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Santa Cruz vs Ituano

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio José do Rego Maciel
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Edson Miranda
37'
Richard
40'
William Alves

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Santa Cruz and Ituano finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Santa Cruz
17%
Draws
13%
Ituano
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ituano come out ahead of Santa Cruz on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Santa Cruz's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Serie C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Santa Cruz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 68%
Ituano Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Ituano
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 12 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Ituano
1:0
Jan 3, 2021 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Ituano
1:1
Dec 26, 2020 Serie C
Ituano vs Santa Cruz
1:2
Sep 29, 2007 Serie B
Ituano vs Santa Cruz
0:2
Jun 26, 2007 Serie B
Santa Cruz vs Ituano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Renato
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ituano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 77 / 100
Ituano 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Ituano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Santa Cruz scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Ituano let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Santa Cruz has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz VS Ituano
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Internacional de Limeira1474317:1425
2Brusque1473420:1524
3Santa Cruz1473415:1024
4Paysandu PA1472522:1923
5Guarani1465325:1423
6Botafogo PB1471619:1522
7Maringa FC1464427:2422
8Ferroviaria1464415:1222
9SER Caxias do Sul1456313:1021
10Floresta EC1455415:1420
11Ituano1454516:1619
12Ypiranga FC1453617:1918
13Volta Redonda1453610:1518
14Amazonas1452713:1917
15Maranhao1445511:1417
16Figueirense1445512:1817
17Itabaiana1444612:1716
18Barra FC (Santa Catarina)1436517:1615
19Confianca143298:1411
20Anapolis142399:189