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Santa Cruz vs Ituano

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio José do Rego Maciel, Recife
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Edson Miranda
37'
Richard
40'
William Alves

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Santa Cruz and Ituano finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Santa Cruz
20%
Draws
17%
Ituano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Cruz come out ahead of Ituano on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Santa Cruz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Santa Cruz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 68%
Ituano Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Ituano
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 13 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 0.97 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Ituano
1:0
Jan 3, 2021 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Ituano
1:1
Dec 26, 2020 Serie C
Ituano vs Santa Cruz
1:2
Sep 29, 2007 Serie B
Ituano vs Santa Cruz
0:2
Jun 26, 2007 Serie B
Santa Cruz vs Ituano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Renato
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ituano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 95 / 100
Ituano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Ituano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Santa Cruz scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Ituano let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz VS Ituano
1.38 Goals Scored 0.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz

(Home)
26 Sept
Floresta EC
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Floresta EC
12 Sept
Maringa FC
0 : 1
Santa Cruz
06 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Botafogo PB
29 Aug
Anapolis
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
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Ituano

(Away)
29 Aug
Floresta EC
2 : 0
Ituano
22 Aug
Ituano
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
15 Aug
Volta Redonda
1 : 0
Ituano
08 Aug
Ituano
2 : 0
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 28:19 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 28:22 32
3 Ferroviaria 19 8 6 5 22:15 30
4 Maringa FC 19 8 6 5 32:30 30
5 Floresta EC 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
6 Internacional de Limeira 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
7 Paysandu PA 19 9 2 8 26:27 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 20:15 29
9 Ypiranga FC 19 8 5 6 27:24 29
10 Guarani 19 7 7 5 34:24 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 19:22 28
12 Maranhao 19 7 6 6 19:18 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 21:23 26
14 SER Caxias do Sul 19 6 7 6 17:16 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 18:21 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 13:25 21
17 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 19 5 6 8 21:21 21
18 Anapolis 19 5 4 10 17:22 19
19 Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 14:27 17
20 Confianca 19 3 4 12 11:20 13
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)