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Santa Cruz vs Minerva

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026
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Match Events

55' Event
Bertomeu F.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026 game between Santa Cruz and Minerva finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Santa Cruz
20%
Draws
40%
Minerva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Minerva carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Santa Cruz taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 68%
Minerva Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Minerva
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.07 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Santa Cruz vs Minerva
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Minerva vs Santa Cruz
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Bertomeu F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Minerva Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 59 / 100
Minerva 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Minerva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Santa Cruz stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Santa Cruz found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Minerva conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz VS Minerva
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz

(Home)
20 Sept
Mazarron FC
2 : 2
Santa Cruz
12 Sept
Santa Cruz
2 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
06 Sept
San Javier
3 : 2
Santa Cruz
10 May
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 1
Santa Cruz
02 May
Santa Cruz
1 : 2
Real Murcia B
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Minerva

(Away)
20 Sept
San Javier
1 : 0
Minerva
13 Sept
Minerva
0 : 0
FC Cartagena SAD B
06 Sept
Deportivo Maritimo
0 : 1
Minerva
10 May
Minerva
3 : 2
E.G. El Palmar
03 May
Deportivo Maritimo
4 : 0
Minerva
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ciudad Cieza 34 21 10 3 65:21 73
2 Real Murcia B 34 17 8 9 59:44 59
3 Molinense 34 17 8 9 46:34 59
4 Club Olimpico de Totana 34 15 13 6 44:27 58
5 Mazarron FC 34 14 14 6 50:33 56
6 UCAM Murcia B 34 13 16 5 55:37 55
7 Aguilas FC B 34 14 10 10 47:42 52
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 11 10 30:29 50
9 Santa Cruz 34 14 6 14 35:37 48
10 Minerva 34 11 11 12 28:39 44
11 Bala Azul 34 8 16 10 39:36 40
12 FC Cartagena SAD B 34 9 11 14 40:39 38
13 Deportivo Maritimo 34 9 9 16 38:46 36
14 E.G. El Palmar 34 8 8 18 27:48 32
15 Santomera 34 8 8 18 38:64 32
16 Caravaca 34 6 13 15 33:44 31
17 Muleno CF 34 6 13 15 33:58 31
18 Yeclano B 34 6 9 19 25:54 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026 (Play Offs)