Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio El Campín, Bogotá
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Sub
Puerta M. In: Rodriguez E.
Out: Puerta M.
37'
Lopez E.
42'
Bustos N.

AI Match Summary

The Primera A game between Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Fe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Santa Fe
30%
Draws
29%
Deportes Tolima
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santa Fe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Deportes Tolima haven't matched Santa Fe's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Santa Fe taking it.
  • Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Santa Fe Clean Sheet 20%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Fe Deportes Tolima
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 10 6
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.62 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe
2:2
Nov 29, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe
1:0
Nov 26, 2025 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima
1:2
Jul 19, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Fe Compare

Top Goalscorer Bustos N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Deportes Tolima Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Fe 42 / 100
Deportes Tolima 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Fe Deportes Tolima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Fe found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Deportes Tolima's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Santa Fe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santa Fe VS Deportes Tolima
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Fe

(Home)
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
23 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 1
Dep. Cali
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4
Santa Fe
15 Sept
Vasco
2 : 0
Santa Fe
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0
Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 6

Deportes Tolima

(Away)
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2
Deportes Tolima
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1
America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0
Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0
Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2
Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America De Cali 11 7 3 1 22:6 24
2 Dep. Cali 11 6 3 2 17:8 21
3 Bucaramanga 10 5 5 0 17:9 20
4 Millonarios 12 5 5 2 16:9 20
5 Atl. Nacional 9 6 1 2 18:9 19
6 Ind. Medellin 10 6 1 3 17:13 19
7 Deportes Tolima 11 5 3 3 15:13 18
8 Santa Fe 10 4 4 2 16:11 16
9 Llaneros 11 4 2 5 14:14 14
10 Once Caldas 11 3 3 5 14:15 12
11 Inter Bogotá 12 2 6 4 13:17 12
12 Cucuta 11 3 3 5 11:19 12
13 Aguilas Doradas 10 2 5 3 12:15 11
14 Chico 10 3 2 5 10:18 11
15 Alianza 11 3 2 6 11:21 11
16 Junior 9 2 3 4 14:14 9
17 Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 11 1 6 4 13:18 9
18 Dep. Pereira 9 1 5 3 6:11 8
19 Dep. Pasto 11 2 2 7 9:18 8
20 Jaguares de Cordoba 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)