Sport Picks
Match Events
50'
50'
Machado Oliveira Carvalho D. F.
(Penalty)
90'
90'
PH Gama
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Paraense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castanhal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Castanhal have won more games recently than Santa Rosa.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Santa Rosa taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Santa Rosa Clean Sheet 20%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Santa Rosa | Castanhal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 17 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.57 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 31, 2026 Paraense
Castanhal vs Santa Rosa
1:0
Feb 8, 2025 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Castanhal
1:1
Jan 28, 2024 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Castanhal
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Santa Rosa Compare
Top Goalscorer PH Gama
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Castanhal Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Santa Rosa 42 / 100
Castanhal 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Santa Rosa Castanhal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Castanhal conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.
Castanhal lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Santa Rosa's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Santa Rosa VS Castanhal
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Santa Rosa
(Home) 22 Feb
Aguia De Maraba
1 : 0 Santa Rosa
19 Feb
Cameta
2 : 0 Santa Rosa
15 Feb
Santa Rosa
0 : 2 Paysandu PA
12 Feb
Amazonia IFC
2 : 2 Santa Rosa
08 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0 Bragantino PA
Page 1 of 6
15 Feb
Santa Rosa
0 : 2 Paysandu PA
08 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0 Bragantino PA
04 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0 Sao Francisco
02 Mar
Santa Rosa
1 : 0 Sao Francisco
08 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 1 Castanhal
Page 1 of 3
Castanhal
(Away) 11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4 Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1 Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0 Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1 Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0 Castanhal
Page 1 of 6
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0 Castanhal
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1 Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0 Castanhal
04 Feb
Sao Raimundo PA
0 : 1 Castanhal
25 Jan
Cameta
0 : 0 Castanhal
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:4 | 17 |
| 2 | Paysandu PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Bragantino PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:6 | 17 |
| 4 | Castanhal | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 5 | Tuna Luso | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 6 | Aguia De Maraba | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 11 |
| 7 | Capitao Poco | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Santa Rosa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | 10 |
| 9 | Cameta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 10 | Sao Francisco | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:16 | 6 |
| 11 | Independente | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5:12 | 6 |
| 12 | Caete | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5:12 | 3 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paysandu PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 2 | Cameta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 3 | Sao Francisco | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Caete | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5:12 | 3 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:4 | 17 |
| 2 | Bragantino PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:6 | 17 |
| 3 | Castanhal | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 4 | Independente | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5:12 | 6 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuna Luso | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 2 | Aguia De Maraba | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 11 |
| 3 | Capitao Poco | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 4 | Santa Rosa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | 10 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
