Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Rosa vs Sao Francisco

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Abelardo Conduru, Belem
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Jonathan Chula

AI Match Summary

Santa Rosa in this Paraense matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Rosa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Santa Rosa
30%
Draws
23%
Sao Francisco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santa Rosa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sao Francisco lately — more wins on the board than Santa Rosa.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Paraense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Santa Rosa here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Santa Rosa Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Francisco Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Rosa Sao Francisco
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 0.57 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Sao Francisco
1:0
Mar 2, 2025 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Sao Francisco
1:0
Jan 24, 2024 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Sao Francisco
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Rosa Compare

Top Goalscorer Jonathan Chula
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Sao Francisco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Rosa 32 / 100
Sao Francisco 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Rosa Sao Francisco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Francisco has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Away concern: Sao Francisco has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Santa Rosa's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Santa Rosa VS Sao Francisco
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Rosa

(Home)
22 Feb
Aguia De Maraba
1 : 0
Santa Rosa
19 Feb
Cameta
2 : 0
Santa Rosa
15 Feb
Santa Rosa
0 : 2
Paysandu PA
12 Feb
Amazonia IFC
2 : 2
Santa Rosa
08 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0
Bragantino PA
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Sao Francisco

(Away)
15 Feb
Sao Raimundo PA
0 : 0
Sao Francisco
11 Feb
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Sao Francisco
08 Feb
Sao Francisco
1 : 2
Cameta
04 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0
Sao Francisco
31 Jan
Sao Francisco
0 : 0
Remo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameta 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
2 Capitao Poco 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
3 Paysandu PA 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
4 Aguia De Maraba 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
5 Remo 6 2 4 0 9:5 10
6 Tuna Luso 6 3 0 3 3:5 9
7 Castanhal 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
8 Santa Rosa 6 2 1 3 4:7 7
9 Sao Raimundo PA 6 1 3 2 6:8 6
10 Amazonia IFC 6 1 3 2 7:11 6
11 Bragantino PA 6 1 2 3 6:7 5
12 Sao Francisco 6 1 2 3 4:5 5
Promotion - Paraense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 2027 (Main)