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Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Chessa M.
35' Event
Maltoni E.
70' Event
Chessa M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Sant'Angelo and Castellanzese finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castellanzese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sant'Angelo
15%
Draws
48%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sant'Angelo come out ahead of Castellanzese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Castellanzese's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Castellanzese here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Sant'Angelo Clean Sheet 16%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sant'Angelo Castellanzese
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.29 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese
1:2
Apr 17, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese
0:2
Dec 8, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Sant'Angelo
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sant'Angelo Compare

Top Goalscorer Maltoni E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sant'Angelo 11 / 100
Castellanzese 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sant'Angelo Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Castellanzese conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

Sant'Angelo scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Sant'Angelo stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sant'Angelo VS Castellanzese
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sant'Angelo

(Home)
07 Oct
Pavia
1 : 3
Sant'Angelo
04 Oct
Sant'Angelo
1 : 2
Castellanzese
27 Sept
Pistoiese
3 : 0
Sant'Angelo
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
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Castellanzese

(Away)
04 Oct
Sant'Angelo
1 : 2
Castellanzese
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)