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Santanyi vs Mercadal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Martinez S.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Rodriguez G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Santanyi
35%
Draws
23%
Mercadal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santanyi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mercadal lately — more wins on the board than Santanyi.
  • Santanyi are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Santanyi Clean Sheet 16%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santanyi Mercadal
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 12
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.21 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Santanyi vs Mercadal
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Santanyi
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Santanyi vs Mercadal
3:0
Jan 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Santanyi
3:2
Sep 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Santanyi vs Mercadal
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santanyi Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Mercadal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santanyi 48 / 100
Mercadal 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santanyi Mercadal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santanyi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santanyi went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Santanyi's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mercadal has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Santanyi VS Mercadal
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Santanyi

(Home)
04 Oct
Porreres
0 : 1
Santanyi
26 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Mercadal
19 Sept
Alcudia
1 : 2
Santanyi
13 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Constancia
06 Sept
Cardassar
0 : 0
Santanyi
Page 1 of 6

Mercadal

(Away)
03 Oct
Mercadal
1 : 3
Constancia
26 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Mercadal
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Inter Ibiza
0 : 2
Mercadal
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manacor 5 5 0 0 15:5 15
2 SD Ibiza 5 4 1 0 8:2 13
3 Cardassar 5 3 1 1 10:4 10
4 Constancia 5 3 1 1 9:3 10
5 Llosetense 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
6 Platges de Calvia 5 3 0 2 9:5 9
7 Santanyi 5 2 3 0 5:3 9
8 Porreres 5 3 0 2 7:6 9
9 Formentera 5 2 2 1 7:4 8
10 PE Sant Jordi 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
11 Alcudia 5 2 0 3 10:11 6
12 Mercadal 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Andratx 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
14 Binissalem 5 1 0 4 5:9 3
15 Arenal 5 1 0 4 5:11 3
16 Migjorn 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
17 Inter Ibiza 5 0 1 4 2:12 1
18 Sineu 5 0 0 5 3:14 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 (Play Offs)