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Santarem vs GD Fontinhas

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Leandro Alves
29' Event
Joao Maria
58' Event
Aguas M.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024 game between Santarem and GD Fontinhas finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santarem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Santarem
30%
Draws
37%
GD Fontinhas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: GD Fontinhas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and GD Fontinhas come out ahead of Santarem on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Santarem Clean Sheet 18%
GD Fontinhas Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santarem GD Fontinhas
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 11 5
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Santarem vs GD Fontinhas
2:1
Nov 5, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Fontinhas vs Santarem
3:2
May 10, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Santarem vs GD Fontinhas
0:0
Jan 12, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Fontinhas vs Santarem
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Leandro Alves
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aguas M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

GD Fontinhas Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Maria
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santarem 32 / 100
GD Fontinhas 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santarem GD Fontinhas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Santarem scored in 63% of their last 32 outings.

GD Fontinhas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Santarem stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santarem VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Santarem

(Home)
20 Sept
Santarem
5 : 0
Merelinense
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
Page 1 of 7

GD Fontinhas

(Away)
07 Apr
Sertanense
0 : 0
GD Fontinhas
30 Mar
Marinhense
3 : 1
GD Fontinhas
24 Mar
GD Fontinhas
2 : 0
Tomar
17 Mar
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Fontinhas
09 Mar
GD Fontinhas
0 : 0
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santarem 26 17 4 5 52:23 55
2 SC Lusitania 26 15 6 5 40:22 51
3 Marinhense 26 15 5 6 43:26 50
4 Alverca B 26 11 6 9 34:19 39
5 Uniao de Coimbra 26 11 5 10 30:26 38
6 SB Castelo Branco 26 10 7 9 34:29 37
7 GD Peniche 26 11 4 11 28:39 37
8 Sertanense 26 10 7 9 26:25 37
9 Mortagua FC 26 10 7 9 30:36 37
10 GD Fontinhas 26 9 5 12 23:32 32
11 CD Rabo Peixe 26 8 6 12 30:34 28
12 Vitoria Sernache 26 5 10 11 17:30 25
13 CD Gouveia 26 5 6 15 35:48 21
14 Tomar 26 5 2 19 20:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)