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Santarem vs Varzim

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem
Santarem Logo

Santarem

2 - 2
FT
Varzim Logo

Varzim

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
da Silva D.
30' Event
Lopes F.
32'
Sub
Ayiah E. In: Koume S.
Out: Ayiah E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Santarem
35%
Draws
50%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Santarem haven't matched Varzim's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Varzim taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Santarem Clean Sheet 22%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santarem Varzim
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 12
Draws 11 6
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.07 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Varzim
2:2
Mar 21, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Santarem
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Teixeira R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Madeira T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Varzim Compare

Top Goalscorer da Silva D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopes F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santarem 29 / 100
Varzim 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santarem Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santarem found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Varzim conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Santarem went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santarem VS Varzim
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santarem

(Home)
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
08 Aug
Covilha
2 : 0
Santarem
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
10 May
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Santarem
Page 1 of 6

Varzim

(Away)
16 Aug
Varzim
2 : 1
AD Marco 09
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
02 Aug
Varzim
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
29 Jul
Tirsense
0 : 1
Varzim
15 Jul
Tondela
1 : 0
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)