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Santomera vs Caravaca

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13
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Match Events

29' Event
Araujo J.

AI Match Summary

Santomera in this Tercera RFEF - Group 13 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santomera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Santomera
44%
Draws
20%
Caravaca
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Santomera lately — more wins on the board than Caravaca.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Santomera Clean Sheet 16%
Caravaca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santomera Caravaca
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 5
Draws 6 12
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Santomera vs Caravaca
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs Santomera
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Santomera vs Caravaca
3:2
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs Santomera
1:0
Jan 18, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Santomera vs Caravaca
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santomera Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Caravaca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santomera 36 / 100
Caravaca 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santomera Caravaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santomera found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Caravaca conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Santomera remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santomera VS Caravaca
1 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santomera

(Home)
10 May
Club Olimpico de Totana
3 : 1
Santomera
02 May
Santomera
2 : 1
FC Cartagena SAD B
25 Apr
Real Murcia B
2 : 3
Santomera
19 Apr
Santomera
3 : 1
Yeclano B
12 Apr
Minerva
1 : 0
Santomera
Page 1 of 6

Caravaca

(Away)
09 May
Bala Azul
2 : 4
Caravaca
03 May
Caravaca
0 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
25 Apr
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 0
Caravaca
19 Apr
Caravaca
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
12 Apr
Yeclano B
3 : 1
Caravaca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ciudad Cieza 34 21 10 3 65:21 73
2 Real Murcia B 34 17 8 9 59:44 59
3 Molinense 34 17 8 9 46:34 59
4 Club Olimpico de Totana 34 15 13 6 44:27 58
5 Mazarron CF 34 14 14 6 50:33 56
6 UCAM Murcia B 34 13 16 5 55:37 55
7 Aguilas FC B 34 14 10 10 47:42 52
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 11 10 30:29 50
9 Santa Cruz 34 14 6 14 35:37 48
10 Minerva 34 11 11 12 28:39 44
11 Bala Azul 34 8 16 10 39:36 40
12 FC Cartagena SAD B 34 9 11 14 40:39 38
13 Deportivo Maritimo 34 9 9 16 38:46 36
14 E.G. El Palmar 34 8 8 18 27:48 32
15 Santomera 34 8 8 18 38:64 32
16 Caravaca 34 6 13 15 33:44 31
17 Muleno CF 34 6 13 15 33:58 31
18 Yeclano B 34 6 9 19 25:54 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 (Play Offs)