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Santos FC vs Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2023
Sat, Sep 30, 2023
3 - 0
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santos FC play Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) in the Liga 2 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santos FC averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Santos FC won 2, Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 30, 2023 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Santos FC and 1.25 for Alfonso Ugarte (Puno). This points to a Santos FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Santos FC
32%
Draws
26%
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Santos FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Santos FC picked up more points recently compared to Alfonso Ugarte (Puno).
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Santos FC Clean Sheet 19%
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos FC Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.35 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2023 Liga 2
Santos FC vs Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
3:0
Jul 2, 2023 Liga 2
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) vs Santos FC
1:1
Aug 28, 2022 Liga 2
Santos FC vs Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
1:0
May 29, 2022 Liga 2
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) vs Santos FC
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos FC 42 / 100
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos FC Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santos FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santos FC attacking → ← attacking Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santos FC scored in 70% of their last 37 games.

Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Santos FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 33
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Comerciantes Unidos26203354:2263
2Los Chankas26165572:2553
3Alianza Huanuco26156543:2551
4Llacuabamba26137644:3146
5Santos FC26126832:2442
6Comerciantes FC26116927:2639
7U. San Martin261061034:3036
8Deportivo Coopsol261061030:2936
9Juan Aurich26710923:2731
10Union Huaral26591222:3424
11Ayacucho26581337:5023
12Pirata26561522:5921
13Carlos Stein26152026:768
14Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)26691136:4427