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Santos Tartu vs Elva

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Alve A.
40'
Koivastik K.
56'
Sub
Kuus Rai. In: Samoilov D.
Out: Kuus Rai.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga 2018 game between Santos Tartu and Elva finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Santos Tartu
20%
Draws
47%
Elva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Elva come out ahead of Santos Tartu on wins alone.
  • Santos Tartu are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Esiliiga 2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Santos Tartu Clean Sheet 10%
Elva Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos Tartu Elva
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.47 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 20, 2018 Esiliiga
Elva vs Santos Tartu
1:0
Sep 10, 2018 Esiliiga
Elva vs Santos Tartu
0:0
Jun 12, 2018 Esiliiga
Santos Tartu vs Elva
1:1
Mar 4, 2018 Esiliiga
Santos Tartu vs Elva
0:1
Oct 28, 2017 Esiliiga
Elva vs Santos Tartu
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santos Tartu Compare

Top Goalscorer Alve A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Elva Compare

Top Goalscorer Kuresoo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.75
Avg xA / game 1.07

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos Tartu 38 / 100
Elva 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos Tartu Elva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santos Tartu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santos Tartu found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Elva's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Santos Tartu remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

- VS Elva
0 Goals Scored 2.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Santos Tartu

(Home)
11 Nov
Santos Tartu
0 : 0
Flora Tallinn U21
04 Nov
Tartu JK Welco
1 : 3
Santos Tartu
29 Oct
Santos Tartu
1 : 0
Levadia U21
20 Oct
Elva
1 : 0
Santos Tartu
06 Oct
Keila JK
4 : 0
Santos Tartu
Page 1 of 6

Elva

(Away)
13 Sept
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 2
Elva
10 Sept
Viimsi JK
5 : 0
Elva
06 Sept
Elva
1 : 0
Kalju U21
03 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
0 : 1
Elva
24 Aug
Elva
0 : 0
Flora Tallinn U21
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maardu Linnameeskond 36 29 1 6 126:38 88
2 Flora Tallinn U21 36 21 8 7 115:31 71
3 Levadia U21 36 18 7 11 67:56 61
4 Elva 36 15 10 11 51:64 55
5 Rakvere 36 14 10 12 59:60 52
6 Tartu JK Welco 36 12 6 18 44:78 42
7 Santos Tartu 36 11 8 17 47:68 41
8 Tallinna Kalev U21 36 10 9 17 37:52 39
9 Keila JK 36 10 5 21 41:88 35
10 Kalju U21 36 5 6 25 37:89 21
Relegation - Esiliiga 2018 (Relegation)
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2019 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga 2018 (Promotion)