Sport Picks
Santos vs Atletico-MG
South America
Copa Sudamericana Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos 
Match Events
31'
31'
Willian Arao
Assist: Gabriel Barbosa
59'
59'
Sub
Preciado A. In: Minda A.
Out: Preciado A.
59'
59'
Sub
Bernard In: Victor Hugo
Out: Bernard
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 5-2. The second leg ended 2-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Atletico-MG haven't matched Santos's recent run of results.
- 54% — that's where the model lands on Santos taking it.
- Santos have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Santos, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Santos Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Santos | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Atletico-MG vs Santos
5:2
Sep 9, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Santos
1:1
Apr 17, 2025 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Santos Compare
Top Goalscorer Willian Arao
1 Goals Assists Leader Oliva C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Atletico-MG Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Santos 68 / 100
Atletico-MG 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Santos Atletico-MG
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Santos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Atletico-MG conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Attacking prowess: Santos scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Santos went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Santos VS Atletico-MG
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Santos
(Home) 19 Sept
Remo
1 : 2 Santos
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2 Santos
13 Sept
Santos
2 : 1 Cruzeiro
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
06 Sept
Internacional
2 : 3 Santos
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Santos
2 : 1 Cruzeiro
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
03 Sept
Santos
0 : 0 Palmeiras
23 Aug
Santos
1 : 1 Mirassol
13 Aug
Santos
2 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 3
Atletico-MG
(Away) 19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2 Santos
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
26 Aug
Cruzeiro
1 : 1 Atletico-MG
22 Aug
Internacional
0 : 0 Atletico-MG
12 Aug
Bragantino
0 : 1 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Boca Juniors 2
O Higgins 1
TBD -
Recoleta -
Bolivar 4
Gremio 2
TBD -
Sao Paulo -
Santa Fe 5
Caracas 0
TBD -
River Plate -
Ind. Medellin 2
Vasco 3
TBD -
Olimpia Asuncion -
Sporting Cristal 0
Bragantino 1
TBD -
Atletico-MG -
Universidad Central 3
Santos 8
TBD -
Macara -
Club Nacional 2
Tigre 4
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Lanus 2
Cienciano 4
TBD -
Botafogo RJ -
1/8-finals
Boca Juniors 7
Recoleta 1
Bolivar 2
Sao Paulo 4
Santa Fe 2
River Plate 1
Vasco 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Bragantino 2
Atletico-MG 3
Santos 2
Macara 1
Tigre 1
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 6
Botafogo RJ 2
Quarter-finals
Boca Juniors 2
Sao Paulo 1
Santa Fe 0
Vasco 2
Atletico-MG 5
Santos 4
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 2
Semi-finals
Boca Juniors -
Vasco -
Atletico-MG -
Montevideo City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
