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Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Abouallal Ziani I.

AI Match Summary

Lagun Onak in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lagun Onak.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Santurtzi
15%
Draws
59%
Lagun Onak
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagun Onak lately — more wins on the board than Santurtzi.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Santurtzi Clean Sheet 16%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santurtzi Lagun Onak
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 9 8
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 0.83 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.31 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak
0:1
Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak
0:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Santurtzi
1:2
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Santurtzi
1:4
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santurtzi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lagun Onak Compare

Top Goalscorer Abouallal Ziani I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santurtzi 31 / 100
Lagun Onak 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santurtzi Lagun Onak

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagun Onak Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Santurtzi's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lagun Onak conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Santurtzi has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santurtzi VS Lagun Onak
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santurtzi

(Home)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0
Santurtzi
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
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Lagun Onak

(Away)
03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Leioa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)