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Sao Caetano vs Jacarei FC

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Indio

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Sao Caetano advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Sao Caetano
39%
Draws
31%
Jacarei FC
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sao Caetano come out ahead of Jacarei FC on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Sao Caetano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Caetano, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 68%
Jacarei FC Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Caetano Jacarei FC
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 9 11
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.5 0.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Jacarei FC
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Paulista A4
Jacarei FC vs Sao Caetano
0:0
Feb 14, 2026 Paulista A4
Jacarei FC vs Sao Caetano
0:0
Jan 29, 2025 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Jacarei FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Caetano Compare

Top Goalscorer Indio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Jacarei FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Caetano 41 / 100
Jacarei FC 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Caetano Jacarei FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Caetano's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Recent resilience: Sao Caetano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Jacarei FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sao Caetano VS Jacarei FC
1.5 Goals Scored 0.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Caetano

(Home)
20 Jul
Sao Caetano
1 : 2
Sao Jose EC
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Sao Caetano
1 : 0
Jacarei FC
11 Apr
Jacarei FC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 7

Jacarei FC

(Away)
18 Apr
Sao Caetano
1 : 0
Jacarei FC
11 Apr
Jacarei FC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
04 Apr
Jacarei FC
0 : 0
ECUS SP
28 Mar
Vocem
0 : 1
Jacarei FC
25 Mar
Jacarei FC
0 : 1
Sao-Carlense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Inter de Bebedouro4
Lemense0
Sao-Carlense2
Barretos EC1
Sao Caetano1
Jacarei FC0
Penapolense3
Taquaritinga3
Semi-finals
Inter de Bebedouro4
Sao-Carlense2
Sao Caetano3
Penapolense4
Final
Inter de Bebedouro2
Penapolense3