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Sao Caetano vs Penapolense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Mauricio
62' Event
Luan Carioca
74' Event
Rikelmi

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Sao Caetano
35%
Draws
58%
Penapolense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penapolense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Penapolense's 1.38 goals per match outpaces what Sao Caetano have produced (1.06).
  • Model gives Penapolense a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Penapolense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 12%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Caetano Penapolense
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 12 12
Draws 10 14
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.06 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Penapolense
2:2
Apr 25, 2026 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
2:1
Feb 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Penapolense
0:2
Mar 16, 2025 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
1:1
Jan 22, 2020 Paulista A2
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Caetano Compare

Top Goalscorer Mauricio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rikelmi
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Penapolense Compare

Top Goalscorer Luan Carioca
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ryan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Caetano 10 / 100
Penapolense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Caetano Penapolense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penapolense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Penapolense conceded in 63% of 32 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Sao Caetano scored in 57% of their last 35 outings.

Sao Caetano has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao Caetano VS Penapolense
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Caetano

(Home)
05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0
Sao Caetano
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
17 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 1
Santo Andre
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
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Penapolense

(Away)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Inter de Bebedouro 4
Lemense 0
Sao-Carlense 2
Barretos EC 1
Sao Caetano 1
Jacarei FC 0
Penapolense 3
Taquaritinga 3
Semi-finals
Inter de Bebedouro 4
Sao-Carlense 2
Sao Caetano 3
Penapolense 4
Final
Inter de Bebedouro 2
Penapolense 3